Projections for Thai durian exports are more uncertain than a year ago as the Chinese market softens.
The volume of durian exports is estimated to reach 750,000 to 850,000 tonnes this year, valued at 80-90 billion baht, said Aat Pisanwanich, an economics analyst and Asean affairs advisor at Intelligence Research Consultant Co Ltd.
He said a major factor is the rapid increase in durian output in Vietnam, which is anticipated to reach parity with Thailand's harvest in 1-2 years.
From 2013 to 2023, Thailand recorded remarkable growth in durian cultivation and production, with output soaring from 500,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes, representing a 180% increase.
The northeastern region produced the most significant uptick in output, with production rising by as much as 1,500%.
The overall area devoted to durian cultivation nationwide expanded by 80%.
Competition heating up
Mr Aat said Thailand remains heavily dependent on the Chinese market, with more than 90% of its durian exports heading there.
In 2024, Thailand exported 859,183 tonnes of durian to China, a 13% decline from 991,577 tonnes in 2023, with the value declining from US$4.12 billion to $3.75 billion.
Vietnam is swiftly increasing its foothold in the Chinese market. In the first 11 months of 2024, it exported 330,000 tonnes of durian to China worth 36 billion baht, up from 290,000 tonnes in 2023 and 20,000 tonnes in 2022.
Challenges for Thai Durian
This year, Thai durian exports to China are projected to be roughly on par with last year's levels, attributed to tighter inspections carried out by China's General Administration of Customs, particularly concerning chemical usage in durian cultivation, he said.
Such scrutiny could lead to extended export processes due to traceability documentation, compounded by delays at border checkpoints in Vietnam.
The issue of chemical usage caused Chinese consumers to lose confidence in Thai durian. Last year concerns arose about cadmium, while this year there are issues regarding the use of Basic Yellow 2 (BY2) dye.
Thai durians are typically harvested when they are about 80% ripe, leading to the dye usage to make them look more appealing. Mr Aat said Thai farmers should harvest durians at the appropriate level of ripeness to eliminate the need for chemical usage.
Thailand faces competitive pressure from Vietnam, which is expected to export 350,000 to 400,000 tonnes of durian worth 36-40 billion baht to China this year.
During 2023-2024, Vietnam's durian exports to China surged by more than 1,000%, he said.
Durian production in Vietnam has increased in recent years, allowing it to meet demand from Chinese consumers year-round.
In contrast, Thai durian production is limited to a period of six months during the summer, up until August, said Mr Aat.
Vietnam also benefits from lower logistics costs because it shares a border with China, creating greater opportunities to establish Vietnamese durian brands as substitutes for Thai durian, he said.
Over the past decade, Vietnam's durian production has grown by 200%.
In 2023, Vietnam produced 800,000 tonnes of durian, up from 270,000 tonnes in 2014.
The country has 680,000 rai of durian plantations, with 90% located in Mekong River Delta provinces. The largest producer is Dak Lak province, accounting for 21% of the total output, followed by Tien Giang and Lam Dong provinces.
"Thai durians stand out from Vietnamese ones in terms of flavour, particularly the 'monthong' variety, which offers a unique sweet and creamy taste," said Mr Aat.
"However, Vietnam is breeding to improve the flavour of its durians."
QUALITY CONTROL
While Vietnamese durians also face chemical residue concerns, its authorities are quickly enforcing strict measures, he said.
Moreover, although Chinese traders have entered the Vietnamese market, the Vietnamese government has set conditions requiring them to contribute to improving the quality of Vietnamese farms, rather than solely purchasing durians.
This contrasts with the situation in Thailand, where Chinese traders primarily buy durians without contributing to quality development.
In some cases, they purchase entire orchards, leading to a lack of quality control, said Mr Aat.
Unlike Vietnam, Thailand also faces risk from low water levels due to drought, which could lead to reduced production and lower export volumes.
To tackle this issue, he said the government should consider adopting a "One Pond, One Durian Orchard" policy.
This initiative would help ensure reliable water supply and increase production, allowing Thai durians to be available throughout the year, said Mr Aat.
Addressing obstacles
He suggested for Thai durian exports to grow in the Chinese market, the government must take decisive and immediate action regarding chemical residues.
This includes utilising data systems, traceability systems, public relations, enforcement mechanisms, and adequate laboratory facilities, said Mr Aat.
Enhancing the processing of durians can also add value, he said.
Thailand must also explore other markets such as the US, the Middle East, Australia and India, said Mr Aat.
Sanchai Puranachaikiri, president of the Thai Fresh Fruit Traders and Exporters Association, expressed concern about the use of BY2 dye in durian rinds to enhance their visual appeal.
"Previously food colouring or turmeric was used to give the durian rinds a yellow colour without posing any health risk," he said.
"However, with Chinese consumers now favouring green-coloured rinds, BY2 dye was introduced in traders' facilities."
This chemical was imported and applied by hired individuals, though the owners of these facilities were often unaware the dye was a hazardous substance, said Mr Sanchai. Eventually durians exported to China were inspected and found to contain the chemical, leading to legal action.
BY2 is classified by the World Health Organization as a Group 2B carcinogen, so it is crucial that government agencies swiftly enforce strict measures to ban its usage, he said.
"Simply shutting down the facilities is not enough. Penalties should also include revocation of the plant's product manufacturing registration and the exporter registration," said Mr Sanchai.
He said this is a critical issue for China's regulators. If further problems emerge, China may suspend durian imports, said Mr Sanchai.
