Thailand should have proactive policies, tech sovereignty and find new markets that face less of an impact from the US-China trade war to survive Globalisation 3.0 and the uncertainties in global trade during the second term of US President Donald Trump, according to science and tech experts.
The country should also capitalise on artificial intelligence (AI), clean energy, semiconductors and build new trade and science diplomacy policies.
Under Trump 2.0, the global trend is moving towards Globalisation 3.0, which means Thailand will no longer benefit from the relocation of Chinese investment to Thailand as Chinese factories using Thailand as a base to sell products to the Asean market are in competition with local and regional factories, Arm Tungnirun, board committee member of the National Commission on Science Research and Innovation, said during the "Trump 2.0, Crisis or Opportunity for Thailand's Science Research and Innovation System" seminar held by the Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) on Monday.
He said Globalisation 3.0 means shrinking globalisation and US factories manufacturing mainly for the domestic market and Chinese manufacturing focusing on the Chinese market.
The current era differs from Globalisation 1.0, when China acted as the global factory, and Globalisation 2.0, when many companies relocated from China to Vietnam, Mexico and Thailand.
The country might face difficulties exporting to the US as Trump's policy targets China and the rest of the world which enjoy a trade surplus with the US, he added.
Mr Arm said Thailand needs to shift from a defensive approach to a proactive one by supporting R&D and creating new markets. Participation in new cooperation groups would be key to maintaining economic security.
"Thailand must shift from the crisis management approach to an opportunity creation strategy through proactive efforts to develop markets and technology."
The country needs to accelerate the development of its digital infrastructure and strengthen its technology industry, he added.
As a result, the TSRI has adapted its funding approach to a targeted based funding model under the "Thailand First Development Agenda" to promote market development with new technologies, strengthen the industrial sector and target growth through technological innovation, particularly in AI, clean energy and semiconductors.
Regarding geopolitics and national development strategies, the return of Trump will have a significant impact on geopolitics, particularly in the intensifying economic and trade competition between the US and China, which could lead to a clearer economic decoupling.
This situation will cause a major shift in the global supply chain, with production bases being moved or newly established in various regions to meet the demands of both global superpowers.
"Thailand has the opportunity to become a centre for economic and trade cooperation. However, Thailand must enhance its competitiveness in technology and international trade, especially when facing strong competitors such as Malaysia and Indonesia."
Additionally, the TSRI urges Thailand to use "science diplomacy" by balancing its engagement with the US and China and leveraging cooperation in Europe-Asean and Pan-Asean, said Mr Arm.
Thailand can seize opportunities and manage challenges, even though the Trump 2.0 policy, which focuses on reducing investments or aid to other countries, may affect international scientific and technological cooperation projects.
The TSRI views this as an opportunity for Thailand to become more self-reliant and strengthen cooperation with new global partners, Mr Arm added.
"The restructuring of the global supply chain presents a golden opportunity for Thailand to promote advanced technology industries and innovation to enhance its competitiveness and integrate into the global supply chains of key industries in particular AI and clean energy where many countries are racing to increase their own competitiveness."
Sompong Klaynongsruang, president of the TSRI, added that science and tech innovation funding needs to adapt to the uncertainty of the Trump 2.0 era, while public and private sector investment in R&D needs to move in the same direction.
Thailand's total R&D spending currently stands at 200 billion baht, of which 40 billion is from the public sector.
"We have to increase public R&D from 1.1% of GDP to 2% by 2027 or faster."
Bank Ngamarunchot, director of the Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Institute, said under Trump 2.0, Thailand faces pressure from US tariffs to purchase high tech products, while products from China will flood Thailand and replace those of local entrepreneurs or foreigners that have higher costs.
The country needs tariffs negotiations as protection from the influx of cheap products and needs to attract knowledge transfer.
Thailand should also seek new markets in "neutral" areas, particularly in Asean, Northeast Asia and Europe.
