Global prices of crude oil, together with prices of key oil and petrochemical products, are likely to fall in the first quarter and throughout the first half amid fewer geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, says Thai Oil Plc, Thailand's largest oil refinery by volume.
The company earlier said that US President Donald Trump's tariffs would be a factor slowing down crude prices as the global economy could be affected by Washington's trade policy.
The Dubai crude oil reference price closed at US$77.9 per barrel on Feb 28.
Torsang Chaipravat, Thai Oil's vice-president for financial planning, maintained the company's forecast on the trend of decreasing global oil prices because there is no new pressure on oil supplies, while demand will not increase significantly.
Concerns over a negative impact on oil supplies in the Middle East are decreasing after Israel and the Hamas militant group agreed on a ceasefire, Ms Torsang said.
Demand for oil, especially from China, should not be very high as Beijing continues to deal with its economic problems.
The US is also being monitored following Trump's imposition of tariffs on various products, as this may drive up inflation and eventually affect the economy.
To maintain the balance between demand and supply, Opec and its allies also agreed to delay their plan to increase oil output until April this year, said Ms Torsang.
Thai Oil is bracing for a higher supply of refined oil in the global market following the opening of large refineries in China, Mexico, Nigeria and Oman, while demand for refined oil products is likely to slow down due to concerns over the US and Chinese economies.
The olefin industry faces a challenging year for this petrochemical product due to higher supply in the global market, said Ms Torsang.
Thai Oil is allocating a $438-million budget for 2025-2027 to support its Clean Fuel Project and investment in PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk, Indonesia's largest integrated petrochemical company.
