The Gold Traders Association (GTA) has upgraded its international gold price forecast for 2025 to US$3,400 an ounce from $3,200, adding the domestic price could top 50,000 baht per baht-weight in the second quarter.
Spot gold rose 0.65% to $3,037.17 an ounce yesterday morning as US auto tariffs ratcheted up global trade tensions ahead of the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the world's largest economy.
Locally the price of the metal soared 100 baht to 48,650 baht per baht-weight, according to the GTA.
All eyes are now on US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs planned for April 2 and the scope of the impacts from such measures, which could accelerate a gold price spike, said GTA president Jitti Tangsithpakdi.
"Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariffs and concerns over the trade war have increased demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, and the prices have gone up faster than our original forecast," Mr Jitti told the Bangkok Post.
Intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have also prompted central banks around the world to top up gold reserves.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, has bought up gold continuously, he said.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 15% this year and hit an all-time peak of $3,057.21 on March 20.
"It won't take long for the domestic price to surpass 50,000 baht per baht-weight, say within the second quarter," said Mr Jitti, adding the global price is anticipated to hit $3,400 an ounce in the third quarter.
Benjama Main, director of precious metals research and investment at gold trader YLG Bullion International Co, said one factor driving gold prices is the expected slowdown of the US economy, partly reflected by recent employment data that was weaker than forecast.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut US interest rates 2-3 times or more this year. Bullion often thrives amid low interest rates because it yields no interest.
YLG maintained its gold price forecast in a range of $3,100 to $3,150 an ounce this year, said Ms Benjama.
Since Trump was sworn in on Jan 20, gold has beaten most non-commodity asset classes, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, according to Kuala Lumpur-based Maybank.
The continuous rise in price underscores the strong demand for bullion due to multiple geopolitical events and conflicts, Maybank said in a research note.
"Gold's rally has been impressive, poised to finish the quarter stronger than $3,000 an ounce," noted the bank.
"We see potential for a bearish reversal below $2,790, but we are still bullish on gold in the medium term and prefer to accumulate on pullbacks."
