A group of Thai industry leaders expects the planned US reciprocal tariffs to reduce Thai GDP growth by 0.2-0.6 percentage points this year, keeping the forecast within the existing range of 2.4-2.9%.
Speaking after the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) meeting yesterday, Tawee Piyawatana, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said it was awaiting the US announcement of measures expected on April 2.
The private sector is working with relevant government agencies to prepare for uncertainties, he said.
“Initially the US reciprocal tariffs are expected to reduce Thai GDP growth by 0.2-0.6 percentage points from previous assessments. We will continue to monitor the actual impact and adjust our growth forecast accordingly, given the softer economic outlook and prevailing uncertainties,” said Mr Tawee.
Thailand is deemed a country at risk due to its significant tariff differentials and trade surplus with the US’s export-driven industries. Electronics, automotive and auto parts, and petrochemicals, in particular, are likely to face heightened risks under the new US tariffs.
In addition, indirect effects may emerge from key trade partners, especially China, in industries with strong supply chain links to US markets. The influx of Chinese goods into Thailand may also increase, along with a potential rise in US exports to Thailand following trade negotiations, according to JSCCIB.
While tourism should be a key driver of Thai economic growth this year, the number of Chinese visitors to Thailand is expected to decline, in line with China’s economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions under the new US tariffs, noted the panel.
Regarding last week’s earthquake, Kobsak Duangdee, secretary-general of the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA), said banks have implemented financial aid measures to assist affected customers, including additional credit lines for home repairs and debt restructuring.
The TBA engaged with its member banks to help provide additional assistance. For instance, banks may coordinate with insurers to expedite claims processing for mortgage customers, giving homeowners faster access to funds for repairs and improved liquidity, he said.
The private sector sees the disaster as an opportunity to strengthen the country’s preparedness and crisis management, according to JSCCIB.
Collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is crucial, particularly in ensuring access to complete and up-to-date data, noted the panel.
Following the earthquake, safety inspections of buildings and structures should be conducted, emphasising transparency by disclosing the results, said JSCCIB, as it is essential to reinforce trust among all stakeholders, including foreign investors and tourists.
