Thailand could potentially import an additional US$32.9 billion worth of American goods to ease the adverse impacts of US President Donald Trump's tariffs by buying more aircraft, energy and grains from the US, says Kuala Lumpur-based Maybank.
Assuming Washington's imports from Thailand remain unchanged, Thailand would need to import $32.9 billion more worth of US goods to shave the deficit ratio to 20% and bring reciprocal tariffs down to the 10% baseline, said Chak Reungsinpinya, managing director and head of research at Maybank Securities (Thailand).
"We think the Thai government could negotiate with the US government, committing to buying more US energy, grain and aircraft. This would significantly cut the US trade deficit with the country and potentially pave the way for lower reciprocal tariffs, given the way they are calculated," he said.
Thailand already imports large and increasing quantities of oil and gas, as well as grains for animal feed. Flag carrier Thai Airways International has also committed to buying 45 Boeing 787-9 jets with an option for another 35. These planes are to be delivered from 2027.
Given the price tag of 787-9 jets, 45 of them would amount to $13.5 billion, and might account for $10 billion after discounts, said Mr Chak.
Thailand imports $33 billion worth of crude oil, of which only 11% comes from the US.
The country also imports $13 billion in natural gas and $5.2 billion in grains, with the US only accounting for 6% of Thailand's natural gas imports and 10% of grain imports.
"The energy import amounts will continue to grow as local production is depleted. As such, if Thailand can promise to purchase more oil, gas and grain from the US, it could significantly help to narrow the US trade deficit and pave the way for lower tariffs," he said.
According to Maybank, the reciprocal tariff is set at half of this US deficit ratio. Any country that reports less than a 20% ratio or runs a trade deficit with the US faces a 10% baseline tariff.
Thailand was slapped with a 36% reciprocal tariff, relatively high for Asian countries, with only Cambodia and Vietnam receiving larger reciprocal tariffs.
Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia should be the least affected, according to Maybank.
By sector, Maybank "does not see any potential winners" from Trump's tariffs.
"Several sectors could face significant headwinds. Those that may suffer from a potential export slowdown or higher competition from imports include electronics, automotive and petrochemicals," said Mr Chak.
Banks, finance and commerce could suffer due to poorer economic growth outlooks, he said.
Finally, the announced tariffs could make the so-called "China+1" trade either permanently or temporarily irrelevant, which would negatively affect industrial estate operators, said Mr Chak.
