Thailand’s economy may have slipped into a technical recession with gross domestic product (GDP) estimated to have contracted in two consecutive quarters, according to Pongnakorn Pochakorn, a macroeconomics expert at the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO).
A new official revision of the FPO’s previous economic projection was expected to be released on April 28, he said yesterday.
US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy was a “powerful earthquake” and could see the global economy shrinking from a previously projected 3.2% to 2.8%, said Mr Pongnakorn.
Consequently, a country which relies heavily on exports like Thailand would be severely affected, leading to an economic contraction for two quarters in a row, or a technical recession.
Thailand will see compounded effects from both the 36% US tariff imposed on its goods, as well as the economic impact of Myanmar’s earthquake on March 28, Mr Pongnakorn said.
The FPO had, as of Jan 30, projected 3% growth for the Thai economy this year, citing four major positive factors, namely public consumption, exports, tourism and investments, he said.
But Thailand's economy remains highly volatile, pending the results of the negotiations on tariffs with the US, said, Mr Pongnakorn.
The Ministry of Finance has now prepared various loan schemes through state-run financial institutions including EXIM Bank, Government Housing Bank and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, he said.
The revision of the FPO’s economic projection may lead to the government revising its medium-term fiscal plan for 2026 until 2029 due to economic growth being less than expected, the macroeconomics expert said.
