Tariffs need 'long term' think
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Tariffs need 'long term' think

Be wary of cheap Chinese imports, govt told

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The effects of the US tariffs on the Thai economy should lead the country to think "long-term", says Sineenat Sermcheep, director of the Asean Studies Center, Faculty of Economics of Chulalongkorn University.

Thailand, the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, was hit with a rate of 36% before President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in his tariff rises, while keeping a basic 10% tariff in effect.

The academic suggested that Thailand needs to make use of this pause "to thoroughly examine strategies and the long-term effects that may occur in Thailand, as well as prepare for other potential uncertainty regarding President Trump's trade policy".

Diversifying export markets and growth engines should be adopted. Thailand could also increase its productivity while trying to find a way to increase its competitiveness so as to rely less on exports, she said.

The government's five negotiation proposals -- increasing US imports, reviewing import tariffs, lowering non-tariff barriers (NTBs), implementing measures to strictly screen imported goods and verify their origins, and encouraging investment in the US -- were ways to address the issue of trade surplus between Thailand and the US, she said.

However, Thailand should also consider the impact of growing US imports into the country, particularly in the agricultural sector that might affect local producers and supply chain.

Meanwhile, Ms Sineenat said another effect of the US tariffs could be an influx of more Chinese goods into Thailand.

"The government needs to find a policy to respond to this overflow of goods to Thailand as well to protect the local market," she said.

"With a relatively high production capacity, China distributes a huge volume of goods to other countries, and Asean is among the export destinations, which is something that Thailand should keep an eye on."

While Mr Trump's "baseline" 10% tariffs remain in effect, this may result in a decline in Thai exports.

It could also lead to Thai goods becoming less competitive in the US market due to higher prices, particularly in electronics, processed foods, and agricultural goods, said Ms Sineenat.

As a result, US consumers may shift to purchasing the same but cheaper goods from elsewhere, leading to the falling sales of Thai products in the US, she said.

"The new US tariff policy may affect the US citizens' income as well, which may hit our exports to the US as Americans may have lower purchasing power after this new tariff policy," she added.

Ms Sineenat pins her hopes on Asean unity, saying engaging in negotiations with the US as a bloc strengthens our position.

"What I think Asean should do now, aside from the negotiations, is reform the economy and accelerate regional integration to maintain its competitiveness on the global stage.

"Asean may work on increasing intra-regional trade and investment as a strategy to diversify risks and also strengthen the regional economy," she said.

Sineenat: Protecting the local market

Sineenat: Protecting the local market

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