RECAP: Asian markets had a mostly positive week despite persistent concerns about US tariffs and Donald Trump's geopolitical manoeuvring. Hong Kong was again the standout performer thanks to the tech sector led by Alibaba following forecast-topping earnings.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,236.80 and 1,267.72 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,246.21, down 2% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 50.81 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 2.87 billion baht, followed by institutions at 1.13 billion. Retail investors were net sellers of 3.45 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 544.31 million.
NEWSMAKERS: President Donald Trump on Wednesday expanded his tariff threats, announcing a plan for levies of 25% on all auto imports, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, starting as early as April.
- Minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee signal that the US central bank is prepared to leave interest rates unchanged amid inflation and economic uncertainty, with some members preferring to see inflation, now at 3%, approach the 2% target before cutting rates further.
- The Japanese economy grew 2.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding market expectations.
- South Korea is seeking to impose provisional tariffs of as much as 38% on hot-rolled steel plates from China, amid concerns about dumping, following a similar measure from the US.
- China is expected lift its ban on Korean entertainment content as early as May to ease anti-China sentiment. The move, if confirmed, comes eight years Beijing imposed a K-wave ban in 2017.
- UK inflation climbed to a 10-month high of 3% in January, up from 2.5% in December, boosted by the cost of food, airfares and VAT on private school fees.
- Etihad Airways' net profit more than tripled last year to $476 million, the company said on Wednesday as it pushes ahead with plans for an initial public offering (IPO).
- Walmart on Thursday forecast lower-than-expected profit for the full year, suggesting that the uncertain economic environment is hitting even the world's largest retailer.
- Alibaba shares jumped on Thursday after the Chinese tech and e-commerce giant said revenue in its December quarter rose at the fastest pace in more than a year by 7.6% to 280.15 billion yuan ($38.5 billion), topping consensus estimates.
- Mercedes-Benz expects its carmaking margin to drop to 6% this year, the lowest since 2020, as it grapples with fierce competition and uneven global demand.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is considering taking controlling stakes in various Intel facilities at the request of US government officials to promote chip production and maintain technological leadership, Bloomberg reported.
- The International Monetary Fund has joined those calling for a further reduction in Thailand's policy interest rate, saying it would help shore up low inflation and ease the burden for local borrowers.
- Thai economic growth of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell short of consensus forecasts of 3.8%, with full-year growth at 2.5%, below the expected range of 2.7% to 2.9%, official figures showed. The National Economic and Social Development Council projects 2025 growth at 2.3% to 3.3%, supported by higher government spending, a tourism recovery and export rebound.
- Commercial bank lending contracted last year by 0.4%, the highest contraction in 15 years, pressured by shrinking retail loans in all categories, especially hire-purchase, the Bank of Thailand said. Large corporate and government loans continued to expand.
- The SET plans to tighten curbs on short selling and high-frequency trading as it attempts to revive investor confidence in the world's worst-performing equity market. The measures are expected to take effect in the second quarter.
- Kasikorn Research Centre expects Thailand's retail sales in to grow by only 3% to 4.25 trillion baht in 2025, the lowest in four years due to many risk factors, including consumer purchasing power that has not yet recovered clearly.
- The Industrial Confidence Index for January improved to 91.6, from 90.1 in December], driven by export growth, increased imports for inventory stocking, a tourism rebound and government stimulus.
- The Federation of Thai Industries expects the beverage market to recover in line with the economy. Average annual growth from 2025-30 is expected at 3.5% to 4.5%, led by non-alcoholic beverages, while alcoholic beverages are expected to grow at a lower rate of only 1-2% per year.
- The Thai Life Assurance Association estimates premium growth at 2-3% in 2025, supported by heightened awareness of medical inflation averaging 8-10%, an extension of coverage up to 80 years, and the ageing population trend.
- Nissan Motor Thailand will continue to make new investments in Thailand, focusing on hybrid electric vehicles, according to the Board of Investment. However, it will consolidate all assembly at one plant, while using its older plant for body, plastic and press shops.
- The new ThaiESG fund, which is being established to ease the selling pressure of long-term equity funds (LTFs) that have matured, is expected to be finalised in the first quarter of this year, the Ministry of Finance says.
- The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects 3.5 million foreign tourist arrivals in February, up 5% year on year and recovering to 97% of 2019 levels. This would bring cumulative arrivals for 2025 to 7 million.
COMING UP: On Monday, the euro zone will release inflation and foreign direct investment data. On Tuesday, Germany reports fourth-quarter GDP and the US releases consumer confidence. On Wednesday, the US releases new home sales. On Thursday, the US reports GDP, durable goods orders and jobless claims. On Friday, Germany reports inflation and the US announces core personal consumption expenditure.
- Locally, the Government Pension Fund on Monday will discuss the 2025 investment outlook, and Maybank Securities has a press briefing. The Bank of Thailand will review its policy rate on Wednesday.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities says a Chinese economic recovery will benefit Thailand as the mainland is Thailand's second biggest export market after the US, accounting for 15.5% of total export value. Stocks that will benefit include tourism (AOT, ERW, CENTEL and MINT); electronics (KCE and DELTA); property developers (AP, LH and SC); construction materials (SCC and SCGP); energy and petrochemicals (PTT, TOP, PTTGC, IVL); food and beverages (CBG, CRC, BJC and CPALL); and rubber producers (NER and STA).
- InnovestX Securities advises investors to monitor statements from Fed members, as any signals about an early US rate cut will have a positive impact on stock market sentiment. Recommended stocks for the week include BBL with a fundamental target price of 180 baht, PTTEP (164 baht), and CPALL (81 baht).
TECHNICAL VIEW: Krungsri Securities sees support at 1,240 points and resistance at 1,287. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,210 and resistance at 1,285.
