Trump tariff storm batters Asian shares

RECAP: Emerging Asian markets got swept up in the global equities storm yesterday, with Thai and Indonesian stocks teetering on the brink of a bear market as President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats sent risk assets reeling.

Thai shares slid below 1,200 points in the morning session amid investor concerns about the country's economic growth outlook, lower than expected corporate earnings and trade war worries.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,186.36 and 1,242.50 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,203.72, down 3.4% from the week before, with daily turnover averaging 63.62 billion baht.

Retail investors were net buyers of 9.33 billion baht. Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.27 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 2.33 billion and brokerage firms at 1.73 billion.

NEWSMAKERS: President Donald Trump on Tuesday unveiled plans to offer $5-million "gold card" visa to wealthy buyers for permanent residency in the US and a path to citizenship.

• Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union but has not set a date. But 25% import tariffs against Canada and Mexico will go into effect on March 4, after a one-month pause, while China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% already in effect.
• The rout in bitcoin deepened on Friday as investors rushed to safer assets in the wake of President Trump's latest tariff threats, marking a dramatic reality check for cryptocurrency. Bitcoin slid below $80,000 and is down 27% from its all-time high reached six weeks ago.
• Revised US fourth-quarter GDP figures showed a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter, matching forecasts but slowing form 3.1% in the third quarter.
• US new home sales fell 10.5% in January to 657,000, slightly lower than expected and down from 734,000 in December, as the median price rose 3.7% year-on-year to the highest since October 2022. New housing inventory rose 1.4% to 495,000 units, the highest since December 2007.
• Indonesia and Apple have agreed on terms to lift the country's ban on iPhone 16s, sources said, paving the way to end a five-month tug-of-war that forced the US tech giant to raise its promised investment in the country to US$1 billion.
• ANA Holdings will buy at least 77 aircraft from Boeing, Airbus and Embraer as the Japanese carrier pursues aggressive expansion on expectations of healthy travel demand over the next five years.
• Seven & i Holdings shares plunged after a proposed ¥9-trillion ($60 billion) management buyout collapsed, increasing pressure on the Japanese 7-Eleven owner to reconsider a rival bid from the Canadian retail giant Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
• Microsoft has cancelled the lease for a large US data centre, potentially indicating excessive AI infrastructure capacity relative to demand. Its $80-billion investment plan remains in place, though some adjustments may be made.
• Nvidia, a bellwether for AI, said on Wednesday its revenue jumped by 78% from a year earlier to $39.3 billion during the three months to Jan 31, as profit rose 80% to $22.1 billion. The chipmaker forecasts sales will of $43 billion in the fiscal first quarter to April 30, slightly above analysts' estimates.
• The European Commission said it had unconditionally approved the $2.3-billion acquisition of the US optical semiconductor and networking equipment maker Infinera by Nokia.
• Tencent became the latest Chinese tech company to unveil or enhance an AI model intended to eclipse DeepSeek, joining a spate of rollouts since the startup's emergence energised the US-China technology race.
• The Bank of Korea has cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9%, citing trade uncertainty driven by US tariff threats and weak economic sentiment, while cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to revive waning momentum.
• The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday to 2% amid government calls for further easing to support the economy and weaken the baht to boost exports. GDP forecasts will be revised in April to 2.5% from the previous 2.9% target.
• Vehicle production in Thailand fell 24.6% year-on-year in January to 107,103 units, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). Domestic sales dropped 12.3% to 48,092 units, after a drop of 21% in the previous month, weighed down by tightened auto loans due to high household debt. Vehicle exports tumbled 28.1% to 62,321 units, the lowest in 33 months.
• The government is in discussions with auto manufacturers about a car trade-in and scrapping programme to revive demand, Reuters reported. The FTI has asked the government to expedite loan guarantee measures for pickup trucks, reducing the timeline from 4 to 2 months.
• Thai exports grew 13.6% year-on-year to $25.3 billion in January, the Ministry of Commerce said. Imports rose 7.9% to $27.6 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.88 billion.
• Export growth must reach 4% and tourism revenue must increase if the government wants to achieve its 3.5% GDP growth goal this year, says the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). As well, state investment budget disbursement needs to reach 90%, and foreign direct investment should be at least 400 billion baht.
• The NESDC said the ratio of household debt (currently 16.3 trillion baht) to GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 decreased to 89% from 89.8%. However, the ratio of non-performing loans to credit increased by 14.1% from the previous quarter across all categories, especially credit cards.
• Rice exports are expected to drop by 33% year-on-year in the first quarter, says the Thai Rice Exporters Association, which expects full-year shipments to fall 24.2% to 7.5 million tonnes. It cites resumption of Indian white rice exports after a two-year hiatus and a global increase in rice production of 10 million tonnes.
• The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is preparing to propose a 3.5-billion-baht low-season tourism stimulus package for 1 million travellers from May to September.
• The Thai Hotels Association has proposed reducing the visa-free stay for nationals of 93 countries from 60 days to no more than 30 days, after seeing increased business activities by foreigners in Thailand through nominees.
• The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has announced plans to review free float requirements for listing on both the SET and MAI. It will hold public hearings until March 18.
• The Ministry of Labour said Social Security Fund growth exceeded its target at 5.34% in 2024, and that the fund has set a return target of 8% for 2025.
• SET-listed Asset World Corp (AWC) is ramping up new investment to 22 billion baht in the hospitality sector this year to capture the rising tourism wave, starting with 8.7 billion baht to acquire Le Concorde office and hotel on Ratchadaphisek Road.
• Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), Thailand's largest private hospital operator, plans to add around 800 new beds at its hospitals to raise the total to 9,600 by the end of 2027, more than the 9,300 target it revealed in July.
• Residential property transfers in 2024 fell 5.2% from the previous year to 347,799 units, the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC) reported on Thursday.

COMING UP: On Monday, the euro zone releases February inflation data and the US updates manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) and producer prices. On Tuesday, China releases a services PMI update. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision. On Friday, the US Federal Reserve releases a balance sheet update and Japan reports monthly industrial production.

• Locally, the insurer Allianz Ayudhya on Monday discusses performance and outlook. On Tuesday, LINE Thailand has a press conference.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Globlex Securities recommends property stocks that stand to benefit from the relaxation of loan-to-value measures. Recommended are AP, LH, SIRI, SC, SPALI and QH. It says Thai tourism-related stocks that could benefit from the "White Lotus effect" include WPH, RP, MINT, CENTEL, BA and BAREIT.

• InnovestX Securities expects a peace agreement in Ukraine could be reached soon, but trade war risks will continue to dampen the local mood. Domestic factors include expected economic stimulus measures as the government tries to push growth above 3%. Recommended stocks include BDMS with a fundamental target price of 32 baht, TIDLOR (21 baht) and BTG (23.50 baht).

TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX sees support at 1,160 points and resistance at 1,230. Yuanta Securities sees support at 1,180 and resistance at 1,230.