Wrong on inflation
Re: "How far should interest rate hikes go?" (Opinion, June 16).
Chartchai Parasuk is wrong in his assertions over inflation. In his column, he claims that "economic theory provides an exact calculation: a 1% reduction in the money supply would reduce inflation by 1%". That's not a theory I've ever heard of. Not even Milton Freidman (who was proved wrong in his assertion that inflation is "always" a monetary phenomenon) ever offered such a prescription.
If it were simply a matter of removing 738 billion baht (3% of M3) from circulation, as Mr Chartchai claims, the Bank of Thailand could simply issue 738 billion in bonds. Central banks don't normally act in that manner because money supply is just one of many factors influencing inflation.
The policy interest rate (the BoT's One-day Repurchase Rate) is a blunt tool used to coax market interest rates up or down in order to encourage or discourage investment and consumer spending, so accelerating or decelerating GDP growth and influencing pressures on price levels.
In the US, GDP growth has been rapid (5.68% in 2021) and unemployment is extremely low, exacerbating the effects of high energy prices and persisting supply-chain bottlenecks, so headline inflation has fed into core inflation.
In contrast, Thai GDP growth was only 1.6% in 2021 (2.2% YoY for March) and core inflation was reported at just 2.28% YoY for May -- barely above the BoT's 2% target (headline Thai inflation was 7.1% in May, but that was driven by spikes in energy and food prices). The BoT bases its monetary policy on the core number, not headline inflation.
There's a strong argument for the BoT raising its policy interest rate incrementally in order to limit the scope for headline inflation to feed into the core number, but Mr Chartchai's prescription of raising the One-day Repurchase Rate from 0.50% currently to 5.2% by December would trigger a deep (and unnecessary) recession.
Mr Chartchai, furthermore, chattered about bond yields and the effect of a weaker baht on the economy. A weaker baht would boost exports, which would expand GDP, not reduce it (Thai GDP is calculated in baht, not dollars or yen). And the fact that Thai bond yields are currently lower than US bond yields shows that the market is prepared to accept lower yields for Thai paper.
There's no need for the BoT to raise its policy interest rate in order to push up bond yields in line with those of the US -- if the market determines that Thai bond yields are too low, it will bid down bond prices (which would raise yields).
Steve Davis
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