An election this year or next? With so many variables, it's hard to know who to believe v Influence is behind Gen Prayut's decision to bypass a 'Tiger' as army chief v Even as the new constitution looms, no leniency is being granted to politicians
The great polldate debate
The election issue is creating discomfort behind the scenes, especially as several National Legislative Assembly (NLA) members continue to force the issue by stressing it will be held in 2018. It has pushed the junta into a corner, and its most influential members have had to repeatedly reassure the public that the election roadmap remains on course, despite uncertainty over whether the organic laws will be ready in time.
A highly placed member of the NLA, who did not want to be named, has joined the ranks of those who believe the election will not be held before next year, although he feels it could be early in 2018 rather than at the mid-way mark as speculated by NLA vice president Surachai Liangboonlertchai. Mr Surachai's prediction last week was immediately pounced upon by both the government camp and those politicians who remain active.
The source says everyone must take into consideration the "appropriate time" for organising the election.
He is referring not just to the amount of time that the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) and the NLA have left in which to enact the 10 organic laws of the new charter, but a very important ceremony: the royal cremation of King Bhumibol Adulyadej later this year.
"The political parties are well aware of what will happen at the end of this year," he said, urging politicians to "show their spirit and support elections at the right time".
Personally, he believes the delay should not extend beyond the early part of next year.
As the prevarication continues, NLA second vice president Pirasak Porchit feels it necessary to defend the assembly, saying legislators are not the only people affecting the timing of the election. The CDC, he says, also plays a role in expediting the enactment of laws.
Much of the conjecture revolves around when the CDC, which is drafting the organic laws, will send them to the NLA, especially those regarding elections -- these bills regulate the election of House representatives, political parties and the Election Commission.
If the CDC uses the maximum 240 days allowed by law to complete its work, it is likely the elections cannot be held this year, Mr Pirasak said.
He played down concerns about how much time is needed by the NLA to consider the bills. Legislators study the content in advance, so their consideration should not take up much time. The big question is when the CDC will forward the bills to the NLA, he said.
Mr Pirasak made his remarks after Mr Surachai's debatable prediction on the election being delayed until next year.
In the meantime, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon said the predicted date is just an "assumption" by Mr Surachai. Gen Prawit said he still believes there should be no change to the roadmap, which roughly sets the date for the end of this year.
"This issue has been going on for some time, so we can't jump to a quick conclusion" that there will be a delay, said Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam. Backing Gen Prawit, he insists the roadmap will be adhered to.
Other senior officials, including army chief Chalermchai Sittisat, concurrently the secretary-general of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), also follow that line.
But it's the latest comment by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha that has political observers doing a rethink. The prime minister wants everyone to understand all of the roadmap's steps of drafting the new charter and the organic laws need to be within a certain time frame.
"If our work goes beyond the deadline, we can't make it in time, but if we do it faster, we'll make it," Gen Prayut said.
To some, these words hold an implicit message: uncertainty. Gen Prayut has made no commitment on the election date.
Patronage and power
Several reasons are behind Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's decision to choose Gen Chalermchai Sittisat as the army chief on Oct 1 last year.
His decision reportedly went against Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon's wish to support Gen Phisit Sitthisarn, then army chief-of-staff, to rein in the army.
The first reason is because Gen Prayut did not want the army to be perceived as being dominated by Burapha Phayak (Tigers of the East), the faction of army officers who had served at the 2nd Infantry Division of the Queen's Guard based in Prachin Buri.
Burapha Phayak is known to have controlled the army for almost a decade.
Gen Chalermchai, who is from the "red beret" Special Warfare Command (SWC) based in Lop Buri, was chosen as part of the way to ward off "anti-Burapha Phayak" sentiment in the army.
Another reason is that Gen Chalermchai is known to be allied with Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda and is close to privy councillor and former prime minister Gen Surayud Chulanont, whom Gen Prayut has long respected.
Gen Surayud and Gen Chalermchai worked closely when they were in the SWC. It is known that Gen Surayud supported Gen Chalermchai as he climbed the army ladder until he became the chief.
Gen Chalermchai was later appointed as assistant army chief and finally chief.
The prime minister also wanted to demonstrate that his decision supported the contention that there is no conflict between him and the president of the Privy Council. Many of his opponents have been trying to create a rift between the two.
Apart from taking control of the army, Gen Chalermchai has held important positions in the NCPO, including secretary-general of the council and chief of the NCPO's Peace and Order Maintenance Command, which means each arm of the military forces must report to him.
Critics said some peculiar events always happen after the appointment of an army chief from the SWC. Gen Surayud, who is also from the SWC, was appointed army chief in 1999 under a Democrat administration despite having five years to go before retirement.
He was said to have been promoted because of his close connections with Gen Prem. However, the rise of Thaksin Shinawatra following the next general election challenged Gen Surayud's position.
Once firmly in control of the country, Thaksin decided to appoint Gen Surayud as supreme commander, a role devoid of power, to control the armed forces. This was perceived to be a tactic to ward off a possible coup against the Thaksin administration.
The appointment clearly underlined a conflict between Gen Surayud and Thaksin.
Gen Chalermchai is expected to be able to hold on to his post until retirement in September, 2018. Before that day, he will see a possible change in the political landscape as the election could fall between late this year and the middle of next year, based on the NCPO's roadmap.
Remaining handcuffed
The new constitution is expected to come into force in the not-too-distant future, but in the meantime politicians still cannot break free of the restrictions imposed by the military regime on political activities until after the organic bill on political parties is enacted.
The bill, along with legislation governing the election of members of parliament and the regulations on the Election Commission, is needed to pave the way for the general election expected late this year.
When the organic bill governing the make-up of political parties becomes law, it will clarify procedures for how parties can proceed so that they can prepare for the general election. But it seems that Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, a key Pheu Thai Party figure, does not want to sit idly by and wait for those organic bills.
She asserts that this year should be the time for the country to move forward towards a brighter and more prosperous future and put behind it the political divide and social disharmony that has shaken Thai society for more than a decade.
She called on all stakeholders to sit down for talks to solve all conflict and stressed the need for fair and impartial law enforcement to end so-called double standard practices.
Her remarks corresponded to a recent move by Seree Suwanpanont, chairman of the National Reform Steering Assembly's political reform committee, who came up with proposals to promote reform and national reconciliation.
Mr Seree said the NRSA has set up a panel to consider measures aimed at helping those facing politically motivated court cases.
One proposal seeks to suspend court proceedings and convictions against certain groups of political offenders during the political unrest over the past decade as part of efforts to bring about national unity.
Those who would benefit from the proposal are rank-and-file protesters who committed minor offences with penalties of between three and five years in jail such as violations of the emergency decree.
Under the proposal, prosecutions and court cases derived from past political unrest will be suspended, despite some cases having gone through court proceedings, though offenders will be required to plead guilty in a court trial first and abide by certain tough conditions to ensure they do not repeat the offences, Mr Seree said.
However, those who committed serious offences such as violations of Section 112 of the Criminal Code, commonly known as the lese majeste law, corruption cases, cases involving the burning of public buildings, as well as leading protests, will be excluded from the proposed "reprieve".
"The proposed reprieve is intended only for people facing minor offences and does not include protest leaders who must fight their cases through normal court proceedings," Mr Seree said.
However, these guidelines proposed by the NRSA's political reform panel are only tentative, and the NRSA will meet to consider them, Mr Seree said, adding that a final conclusion should be reached on the issue when the NRSA's term expires next month.
When asked if Section 44 of the interim constitution, which gives the prime minister sweeping powers, should be invoked to grant an amnesty to political offenders, Mr Seree said that the normal legal approach is preferable.
