Spicing up elections
Thaksin: Purveyor of populism
Voters in the predominantly Muslim deep South are bound to grab the attention of several political parties as the general election tentatively set for Feb 24 approaches.
Attention is zeroing in on a large number of Thai Muslims who work at Tom Yum Kung restaurants run by Thai operators across Malaysia.
The number of workers is estimated at about 300,000 and they are mainly from the three southern border provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, a source said.
The source said they form a sizeable voter base waiting to be tapped by both established and emerging political parties once the regime lifts its ban on political activities and allows electioneering to resume.
The Thai operators of these restaurants where Tom Yum Kung is served in several Malaysian states have formed an association called the Tom Yum Kung Club to forward their interests.
The more than 300,000 Thai Muslims who work in the restaurants comprise both legally registered workers and those without work permits, a source said, adding that Kuala Lumpur promised to look into the issue and relax its employment regulations for the migrants.
Currently, several politicians back home are trying to reach out to representatives of the Tom Yum Kung chain in Malaysia, hoping to gain their vote the source said.
They include politicians from the Democrat Party, which dominates the southern region, as well as some from the Prachachart Party -- a new outfit comprising Muslim politicians from the Wadah faction.
Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, the former chief of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre, who is tipped to become Prachachart's secretary-general, was sent to meet some of these Thai operators in Malaysia as he played a key role in helping them establish their Tom Yum Kung association, the source said.
The new party hopes support from these Thai operators and workers will contribute significantly to party-list gains, the source said.
These Thai operators and workers in Malaysia can cast their votes at polling stations set up at the Thai embassy or Thai consulates.
The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on Tuesday agreed to partially lift its political ban in a meeting chaired by Prime Minister and NCPO chief Prayut Chan-o-cha.
However, it remains unclear when this takes effect.
The government earlier indicated that activities permitted after easing the ban would include holding meetings to select party executives and recruit members; giving opinions on the demarcation of constituencies; conducting primary votes to choose election candidates; and contacting party members.
A source at the meeting said that electioneering would not be permitted as the royal decree setting an election date has not been announced yet.
The NCPO plans to lift the ban on political gatherings of more than five people, and the order prohibiting parties from engaging in political activities in mid-December, the source said.
Tawee: Cooking up support
Break with tradition
Political parties are bubbling with excitement over fresh signs about the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) lifting its political ban.
Anticipation is high and all seem to agree that delaying a general election any further will turn the odds against the regime as its efforts to tackle economic woes appear to miss the mark.
Despite the ban on political activities though, former MPs are known to quietly visit their electorates to get first-hand information from locals and use it to draft party manifestos. It is believed several political parties have final drafts, ready to unveil to the public when the time is right.
While most prefer keeping policy platforms to themselves to avoid being seen as defying the political ban, a few do not mind allowing the public to get a glimpse.
The Future Forward Party for example has vowed to dump the regime-sponsored 2017 charter, slammed as a product of dictatorship, and to push for an amnesty for political prisoners charged by the NCPO.
The Pheu Thai Party has reportedly come up with election campaign pledges that are said to include scrapping mandatory military conscription and selling the navy's costly submarines.
According to political sources, the former ruling party does not see a reason to draft people into military service and, with news reports about physical abuse of new recruits, believes mandatory conscription should be replaced by a voluntary programme.
As for the navy's submarine procurement scheme, the money should be spent on something else that better responds to the needs of the electorate. The vessel will be up for sale to get money to fund other projects like building more hospitals.
After years of talks about maritime defence, the regime last year approved the navy's purchase of the first S26T submarine valued at 13.5 billion baht from China amid accusation of mismanaging priorities.
However, several political observers say the Pheu Thai's two potential election campaign pledges seem to deviate from the party brand of populism since it was adopted by its de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra.
The now-dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party made its political debut with the 30-baht universal healthcare scheme which worked wonders for the party as Thaksin rolled out many more including the one-million-baht village fund.
His sister, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, accused of being a political novice, made history as she led the party to a landslide victory in a 49-day election campaign. The key to her roaring success was none other than the rice-pledging policy in which the government bought unlimited amounts of rice at prices higher than market value.
According to the observers, the proposed cancellations of the conscription and the submarine purchase reflect an "anti-military" stance but they are aligned with those of the Future Forward Party.
Others pointed out these policies also bear resemblance to those of the Seriruamthai Party headed by former national police chief Seripisuth Temiyavej, who was once touted as a potential candidate to lead Pheu Thai because his style was adored by the party's "hard-core" members.
This group of political observers try to make sense of the party's deviation from its trademark positions and conclude that Pheu Thai is aware of political troubles that make it vulnerable to dissolution.
The party is currently under investigation by the Election Commission over whether it is in violation of election law by allegedly having Thaksin control its affairs from abroad.
By borrowing the Seriruamthai's policies, Pheu Thai is possibly eyeing this little-known party as a vessel into which it will reincarnate if the party is disbanded, according to the observers.
In a pickle over candidates
Piyabutr: Aims broadside
The proposed new method of choosing candidates to sit in primary vote elections is getting on many people's nerves including regime critics who believe the change is deliberately designed to delay the general elections.
However, others say they simply misunderstand the law and the change is not as dire as critics claim.
On Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam found himself bombarded with criticism over the proposed new design for primary vote elections.
Instead of allowing at least 100 registered members in a province to nominate MP candidates for the party executive board to pick, Mr Wissanu said each party should set up a central selection panel, which includes seven member representatives, to do the candidacy nominating job.
A chorus of jeers greeted the proposed change even as Mr Wissanu said it was still being mulled by the government.
Law expert Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, who is also a founder of the Future Forward Party, was one of the first to offer a piece of his mind.
Known for his sympathy with anti-regime activist movements, Mr Piyabutr said the new method, which many regard as a "watered down" version of the old system, was a calculated tactic to delay the poll scheduled tentatively for Feb 24 next year.
He said those who register with parties will not formally gain the status of members until the organic law on the election of MPs comes into effect 90 days after it has been signed into law by His Majesty the King and published in the Royal Gazette. The signing of the law and the gazette publication is expected to take place in the middle of next month.
During the 90-day "waiting" period, the National Council for Peace and Order will lift the ban on some political activities to allow for essential election preparations to get under way, such as the redrawing of constituencies, the amending of party regulations connected to a poll as well as arranging the primary vote elections.
Mr Piyabutr said that as members who join during the waiting period cannot be regarded formally as members before the organic law is in effect, they will not be qualified to nominate MP candidates in the primaries. And if the primaries are to proceed in the last 30 days of the 90-day period after the constituencies are re-demarcated, as suggested by Mr Wissanu, that could have dire consequences for the election.
Any member status problem which might occur would pose a threat to the selection of MP candidates to such an extent that it might sink the primaries and subsequently put off the election.
The chaos will not only have dire implications for the election but also for parties including ones which are waiting in the wings to support the NCPO, according to Mr Piyabutr.
However, some legal specialists believe Mr Piyabutr's theorising goes too far, at least from a legal point of view.
Jade Donavanik, chairman of the Faculty of Law College of Asian Scholars, said that for someone's membership to be legally recognised, the person must be member of an established party for at least 90 days before the election is held, not 90 days after the organic law on MP elections is royally endorsed and published in the Royal Gazette.
Also, the legal stipulations surrounding party membership are contained in the organic law on political parties, not the one governing MP elections. The organic law on parties has already been passed.
However, like Mr Piyabutr, Mr Jade is not a fan of the limited version of the primary votes being put on the NCPO's table.
Assigning the job of finding potential MP candidates to a party panel would defeat the purpose of having the public join a broad participatory process in choosing MP candidates, which is enshrined in the charter.
