The government must take immediate action to reverse Thailand's declining birth rate, an expert warned, saying that if the trend continues, the nation's workforce will shrink.
The director of Mahidol University's Institute for Population and Social Research, Chalermpol Chamchan, expressed his concern at a recent press briefing. The Bureau of Registration Administration under the Department of Provincial Administration says Thailand's population stood at 65,951,210 as of Dec 31 last year.
However, only 462,240 births were reported last year, making 2024 the first time the number has dropped below 500,000 since 1949, Mr Chalermpol said, before adding 2024 was also the fourth consecutive year in which deaths exceed new births. Between 1963 and 1983, the country had over one million births each year.
The government needs to review its initiatives, such as the "Give Birth, Great World" campaign, to see why they have failed to increase the birth rate, he said. The campaign, launched in 2023 by the Public Health Ministry, seeks to reverse the declining birth rate by promoting the benefits of parenthood among young couples, many of whom are choosing to delay having children or decide not to have one at all.
Urgent action is needed, as Thailand is the only Southeast Asian country with a declining birth rate, he said. Most countries experiencing a similar trend are high-income, developed nations. The country's total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.0 last year, lower than Japan's 1.2, placing Thailand among countries with ultra-low fertility rates, which include South Korea and Singapore.
As a result, Thailand's population may shrink to as low as 40 million over the next five decades -- equivalent to losing about one million people every two years, based on the current population figure of slightly over 65 million, said Mr Chalermpol. The decline will affect the country's workforce. If current trends continue unabated, there will only be 22.8 million workers in 50 years, he said.
A survey by the Institute for Population and Social Research among 1,000 Thais aged 28 and older showed most Thais -- about 71% of respondents -- consider the nation's declining birth rate as a crisis. However, only 35.8% said they were planning to have children. About 30% said they were on the fence. "With the right kind of support, those who are undecided might decide to have children," Mr Chalermpol said.
Chalermpol: Support needed
