The government must form a task force to negotiate the tariffs imposed by the United States on Thai products before the 90-day pause announced by US President Donald Trump last week expires, an expert urged.
In an interview with Bangkok Post, foreign affairs analyst Panitan Wattanayagorn said the government must understand the objective behind the US decision to impose tariffs on its trading partners and tailor its response accordingly.
Washington's objective is to address the US trade deficit, and the tariff announcement was a way to force the US' trading partners back to the negotiating table -- to reduce the trade volume disparity, as well as to review policies which the US believes are disproportionately benefitting China, he said.
More importantly, Mr Panitan said the government must realise the US' decision to impose tariffs is also related to political and security issues.
As such, he said the government must play its cards right to secure favourable terms in its negotiations with Washington.
Time to respond
When the US announced the reciprocal tariffs, its trading partners responded in three distinct ways.
The first group of countries -- which include Canada, Mexico, Israel, Singapore, as well as the European Union -- immediately launched direct negotiations with the US and revised their trade policies with the US in an effort to secure lower tariffs.
As a result, their exports are now subject to US tariffs of between 10-17%.
The second group of countries, Mr Panitan said, are aware of their strategic significance on the global stage, and are next in line to enter into negotiations with the US.
Negotiations with countries in this group, which include Thailand, will be more complicated, as some nations are either hesitant or are unprepared to enter trade talks with the US, he said.
The last group, meanwhile, is ready to confront the US head-on if Washington proves to be unwilling to launch negotiations with them.
This bloc counts major economies like China, India, or, to some extent, Brazil, he said.
Mr Panitan said, given Thailand's limited bargaining power and modest trade surplus with the US, the government must approach the negotiations carefully.
He acknowledged the approach may take longer to yield results, but there are several issues that the US can use to pressure Thailand into yielding to its demands, including the government's recent decision to repatriate a group of Uyghur asylum seekers back to China.
Government negotiators must also be aware of Thailand's important role in the US' security framework for the region, Mr Panitan said -- referring to the US using Thai bases for joint operations and security exercises. It must ensure the country doesn't get pushed around in the talks.
"We have these cards, but the question is, are we going to use them and get the military involved?" he said.
Mr Panitan called on the government to first assess the state of its economy and then decide what it can afford and what it can negotiate for.
He stressed the need to form a dedicated team to negotiate the tariffs immediately, as any delay in sending negotiators may be seen by the US as a sign of indifference, which he believed would make the negotiations tougher.
As the tariffs are now currently on hold, Mr Panitan said the government must seize the opportunity to initiate talks with higher-level authorities in the US, with the aim of getting the rate cut by at least half.
He said the government must not take this chance for granted, especially given recent developments within Thailand that could influence the US' response, referring to the criminal investigation against American academic Paul Chambers over lese majeste and computer crimes charges.
Brace for impact
As the government prepares for the negotiations with the US, it must also look for other countries to market Thai products to ensure minimal disruptions to the local economy and brace for an influx of goods from countries such as China and Vietnam.
He said the government should also work towards bringing both the US and China to the negotiating table.
If successful, Mr Panitan said it can be used as a bargaining chip in the talks with the US.
He suggested the government also make use of Asean, calling the regional grouping a powerful bargaining platform.
However, given the complex political relationships within the bloc, Asean must coordinate its efforts and put together a unified high-level team which is able to cover economic, political, and security concerns of all members in the talks.
