Govt frets over virus recovery
The government has been juggling its priorities, which vary from month to month, and in the next few weeks at least the heat will come mainly from youth-led protesters who are converging in Bangkok today.
Since the beginning of the year, a string of issues has dominated the national agenda, starting with the Covid-19 outbreak, which grew quickly into the current pandemic that has cast a long shadow over the country's economy.
The government has had to borrow almost a trillion baht to prop up the sudden economic slump resulting from the Covid-19 crisis in order to help sustain people's livelihoods.
Several analysts were hesitant to comment on whether the country had bottomed out, although they said the contracting economy may have even more room to shrink in the build-up to the end of the year.
The government, according to observers, has been moving from the "rescue" phase in its pandemic alleviation plan to the stage where it will be implementing programmes targeting economic "recovery".
The observers said the country was treading cautiously. On the one hand, it is doing everything in its power to stave off a second wave of Covid-19 brought on by imported infections. The government knows full well that a repeat of the outbreak will only lead to its resources and coffers, already heavily under pressure from the enormous relief borrowings, being excessively overstretched.
Critics have warned that putting the economy back together will be a tough call because the pandemic has not been contained in many parts of the world which serve as the nuts and bolts of the global economic engine.
Thailand, the critics insisted, has been commended by the World Health Organization for having tackled domestic transmission of Covid-19 but they said success would be short-lived if the country failed to lift its economy out of doldrums.
However, the pace of the economic recovery has to factor in stability and national politics has to be calm enough in order for the improvement to be sustained, according to the critics.
For the recovery to have any chance of success, the tourism sector, one of the worst casualties of the Covid-19 crisis, has to be revived.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has made it explicitly clear that Thailand needs to tolerate the possibility of new cases when it reopens its borders to international tourists but it said that the country could minimise the impact and avoid a bruising level of unemployment with risk management.
After the country reported its first local transmission in 100 days recently, the TAT downgraded its 2020 estimate to 70 million domestic trips from 80 million. International arrivals remained unchanged at 6.7 million, the same forecast before the border closure, with revenue of 332 billion baht, down 65% from 2019.
TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn has indicated that the tourism sector and everyone connected to it, is getting desperate. The country must bring in tourists by the last quarter as the domestic market alone cannot keep tourism workers employed. "If we keep delaying their entry, about 2.5 million jobs out of four million will be at risk," he said.
The economy depends on the survival of the tourism industry and the government's survival, in turn, hinges on how well it achieves economic rehabilitation.
Foreign arrivals reached 40 million in 2019, with revenue generated from the tourism industry contributing almost 20% of GDP.
However, analysts said the economic recovery may be stalled if the student-led, anti-government protests become protracted, which would be bad news for the Prayut administration. The protesters have vowed to stay overnight at Thammasat University's Tha Prachan campus despite the university having denied them permission to use its grounds for today's planned mass rally. It is expected the protesters may set their sights on extending the rally for the long haul.
The protest comes as the government mulls over a plan to allow foreign visitors to stay in the country for 90 days, extendable up to 270 days, under a special tourist visa scheme (STV), which is projected to generate 12 billion baht a year.
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha says the cabinet has approved the STV in principle and it is aimed at long-staying tourists who arrive intending to travel extensively around the country or access Thailand's healthcare facilities, regarded as among the best in the world.
The policy is expected to become effective next month and last until November next year.
Gen Prayut described the scheme as a possible answer to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the analysts said that if the political situation in the country was less than placid, it would shatter foreign visitors' confidence and spell a setback for the STV scheme, which would also bode ill for the government.
Thanathorn: Criticises spending plans
Thanathorn won't go quietly
To lose your parliamentary status and then see your party disbanded a few months later would have discouraged many politicians. But these have been minor setbacks for Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
The former leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP) appears to have shrugged off these political "hiccups" with ease. He is now co-founder of the Progressive Movement and an adviser on the House committee vetting the Budget Bill for the 2021 fiscal year.
Mr Thanathorn's interest in the budget review process is an open secret.
Last year, after a court suspended him from his role as an MP, he found his way to become an adviser to the House committee scrutinising the fiscal 2020 Budget Bill. He then zeroed in on the Defence Ministry's off-budget spending and questioned its transparency and accountability.
Despite having been slapped with a 10-year political ban which accompanied the disbanding of the FFP over the loan he gave the party, Mr Thanathorn returned to the House committee on budget review this year and, when asked about criticism directed at his advisory role, was quoted as saying that his rights as a citizen were still intact.
The auto-parts tycoon is this time round focusing on funds sought by the government to subsidise development projects.
He posted on Facebook late last month, raising his curiosity about budget allocations to certain foundations, including those dedicated to promoting the sufficiency economy.
According to Mr Thanathorn, the proposed allocations were slashed by a sub-committee but the main House budget review panel then decided to keep the funds wholly intact following an appeal by the Prime Minister's Office, which made the original budget request.
In his Facebook post, Mr Thanathorn gave details about the funds allocated to such foundations by past and present governments. For example, from 2011-2020, a total of three billion baht was set aside for one foundation, or about 300 million baht annually.
In the upcoming fiscal year, Mr Thanathorn said the Prime Minister's Office asked for just 287 million baht to be allocated to that foundation and he noted that the reduced amount was likely due to other needs brought by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The former FFP leader disagreed with the House committee's decision to maintain the subsidy at all, reasoning that the foundation's work overlapped with those of state agencies, who already receive large amounts of money for development projects every year.
He pointed out that it was a private entity and while it was spending taxpayers' money, unlike other state agencies, its spending appeared not to be subject to scrutiny.
The politician said the foundation had enough money to finance its activities for another five years without having to seek a state subsidy.
Mr Thanathorn's Facebook post came ahead of the mass rally which is due to take place at Thammasat University's Tha Prachan campus today.
Opponents claimed that his role in the budget review committee might be motivated by his desire to discredit the government over its spending and handling of the economy, which is the administration's weak point.
While today's protest, organised by the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration, is being presented as "student-led", critics suspect that political networks are helping to organise and mobilise people to attend it. Those networks may be the ones associated with Mr Thanathorn and his Progressive Movement, according to his opponents.
The number of people expected to attend today's protest is at least 60,000. If so, that would be a sharp increase on the initial estimate of 20,000.
The surge is thought to have been helped by anti-government elements who staged a movement against the Prayut government long before the student-led protests had consolidated their forces.
Mr Thanathorn denies pulling any strings behind the scenes, even though he openly supports the students' freedom of expression. He is expected to join the protest but is unlikely to give any speeches.
Most attention will be on core student activists like Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak and Panasaya Sitthijirawattanakul, who are known for their strong stance on reforming the monarchy.
