A meeting a few months ago between Arkhom Termpittayapaisith and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in the northeastern province of Si Sa Ket set rumour mills buzzing that the former transport minister was being eyed for a comeback to the cabinet.
Arkhom: Has a clean record
Arkhom choice a pleasant surprise
The rumour came about when names were being floated on who might make the cut in the country's 63rd cabinet reshuffle in early August.
Several ministerial seats were up for grabs after the government's economic team, led by then-deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak, capitulated to political pressure piled on them by high-profile politicians in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and quit their cabinet posts en masse.
It was anticipated that a shake-up would leave several portfolios vacant and Mr Arkhom was thought to be flirting with landing the PM's office minister slot.
Political sources admitted Gen Prayut's Si Sa Ket visit raised eyebrows, with Mr Arkhom on hand to welcome the premier to his hometown to follow up on developmental projects there.
Sources also said Mr Arkhom's presence served as a credible indication that he might be ready to return to the cabinet sooner rather than later, although in what ministerial capacity was anyone's guess.
However, observers said Mr Arkhom was rarely mentioned as a possible candidate to replace former finance minister Uttama Savanayana, who stepped down from the cabinet along with other Somkid-led economic ministers.
Mr Arkhom appeared to have faded into oblivion briefly after "big names" who were movers and shakers in the country's finance sector were reported to have been shortlisted by Gen Prayut for the finance portfolio.
The premier took a gamble on Predee Daochai, former president of Kasikornbank, and made him finance minister. He was subsequently sworn in on Aug 12 but after less than a month in the job, Mr Predee threw in the towel and exited the ministry, citing ill health.
The race was back on and the names of new contenders were put in the hat. They included then-finance permanent secretary Prasong Poontaneat and Krairit Euchukanonchai, who chaired the boards of giant energy company PTT and the state-run Krungthai Bank.
Speculation went as far as to suggest that Gen Prayut was prepared to hold out on the plum finance post until the fiscal year ended last month so as to present the top seat to a certain, freshly-retired high-ranking official, who would then be able to transition almost seamlessly into it.
That person was thought to be Mr Prasong, who spent his last day in the civil service on Sept 30.
At the same time, Gen Prayut consistently denied that either Mr Prasong or Mr Krairit was being groomed for the coveted finance post. However, he admitted he had a new minister in mind and that the appointee would be a "familiar face".
The description was open to wild interpretation as potential candidates dropped one by one.
By "familiar face", some observers believed Gen Prayut had been referring to someone who had previously held a cabinet post. If so, that meant Mr Prasong and Mr Krairit were no longer in the running.
It was not until early this week that the media reported the prime minister had presented Mr Arkhom for royal endorsement as the new finance minister, to the pleasant surprise of many occupying high positions in the country's financial circles.
Mr Arkhom, the 64-year-old former secretary-general of the National and Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), has been credited with having smoothed the way for large-scale developments of the country's rail network and staved off dominance by a single foreign power over the projects.
Political sources said Mr Arkhom has a clean record and can stand up to interference from politicians.
Despite this and his stint as transport minister while Gen Prayut was head of the National Council for Peace and Order (the military body, now dissolved, that engineered the coup), Mr Arkhom will enjoy no honeymoon period in his finance role because of the economic suffering caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and exacerbated by political pressure from anti-government protests.
Gen Prayut said this week he needed a strong hand who was also skilled in dealing with politicians and that Mr Arkhom, who is scheduled to attend his swearing in ceremony on Oct 11, fits the bill.
The source noted that Mr Arkhom may possess what his predecessor, Mr Predee, is thought to have lacked: the ability to strike a chord with his subordinate, Deputy Finance Minister Santi Promphat, who is also the PPRP director.
Mr Predee was reported to have had a disagreement with Mr Santi in a matter related to the reshuffle of high-ranking officials in the Finance Ministry.
The rift was said to have been mainly over who should head the ministry's Excise Department.
On Tuesday, however, Mr Santi insisted he had no problem working with Mr Arkhom.
Virat: Pushing for a CDA
Charter panel an ominous sign
The formation of a 31-member panel to study six charter amendment bills before a vote is not an encouraging sign for those pushing for a wholesale charter rewrite, according to observers.
Chief government whip Virat Rattanaset sees the move as an attempt to avoid political complications arising from the amendment fiasco but the panel is also being criticised by government opponents as a delaying tactic.
Of the six bills, one is sponsored by coalition partners and seeks to alter Section 256 to pave the way for the setting up of a 200-member Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA) to draw up a new charter.
It would have 150 members being directly elected by voters and 50 indirectly elected.
Those 50 would include 10 student representatives who are demanding that the current constitution to be amended, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha step down and the House of Representatives be dissolved.
In presenting the government's bill last month, Mr Virat and Bhumjaithai Party MP Supachai Chaisamut emphasised the need to revise the constitution by setting up a CDA as a means of breaking the political conflict dividing the country.
However, just as the charter rewrite vote was about to take place, government MPs and senators agreed to set up a committee to study amendment proposals and the vote on whether to accept the six bills was postponed by one month.
Two weeks have passed and there is now talk of government coalition parties dumping their own amendment bill when parliament reconvenes next month and resumes the charter discussion.
A source in the coalition government has conceded it may backtrack on its push to have its version of the amendment passed and the CDA formed. This is because the government deems the stakes to be too high, according to a source close to the matter.
The CDA is unlikely to be controlled or "guided" by the government and for that reason, the draft charter may turn out to be something less desirable for government MPs.
According to the source, the government has reached out to a group of senators who are not keen on the idea of setting up the CDA to write a new constitution.
This batch sees the CDA as being inclined to "lean towards" the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties on account of 150 CDA members, who represent the majority of the assembly, coming from a direct election.
The two opposition parties command sweeping support across the country. Between them they garnered 14 million popular votes in last year's general elections, almost double that obtained by the ruling Palang Pracharath Party.
Several members of the Senate, handpicked by the coup makers, are open to partial charter change and they believe amending the highly controversial sections to improve the political system is an easier path to take, said the source.
It is expected the current single-ballot system of elections and the convoluted distribution of party-list seats are high on agenda, as are the possibility of changing Section 272 to curb the powers and role of the military-appointed Senate.
According to the source, coalition partners including the Democrat Party, which campaigned for charter amendments in its election campaign, are not likely to oppose the partial charter changes.
Some Democrat MPs have already signed their support for the opposition-sponsored motion targeting Section 272, which deals with the Senate's role in choosing a prime minister.
The approach of fixing a very specific section of the charter has become appealing to the government because it is within parliament's jurisdiction, so there would be no need for a referendum to be held at an estimated cost of three billion baht.
However, there is no mention that this option will strike a chord with the "silent" supporters of the charter amendments who are sitting on the fence during the student-led rallies, said the same source.
