This year could be the toughest yet for Prayut Chan-o-cha's administration although reasons abound why the prime minister will be able to sidestep traps and complete the government's four-year term in March next year, according to Democrat Party veteran, Thepthai Senpong.
Thepthai: Only court stands in way
Mr Thepthai, a former MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat, has stepped back from active political roles after he was stripped of his MP status by the Constitutional Court over his 2020 conviction for fraud in the 2014 election for the Nakhon Si Thammarat provincial administration organisation chief.
However, he has managed to offer his opinion on unfolding, significant developments in politics. So, with a political storm looming large for Gen Prayut in the coming months, he did not pass up the opportunity to take to Facebook to speak his mind.
Last week, Mr Thepthai wrote that nothing stood in the way of Gen Prayut hanging around until the government serves out its term in March next year, except the Constitutional Court.
The opposition has issued a veiled threat to request the Constitutional Court to rule on Gen Prayut's questionable tenure. The main opposition Pheu Thai Party believes his eight-year term expires in August since he will have served two, four-year terms back to back following the coup in 2014.
However, Mr Thepthai outlined a long list of reasons why Gen Prayut will continue until next March.
As prime minister, Gen Prayut ultimately commands the nerve centre of power in all shapes and forms. The buck stops with him and he has led the administration with no major resistance from within, which helps buoy the government's stability.
Being fully in charge allows Gen Prayut to build confidence and forge the government's credibility in the eyes of financiers who can provide the "means" to support the administration.
It is natural for financiers to rally behind the powers-that-be rather than take a risky gamble by backing political cliques which may or may not occupy Government House in the future.
Mr Thepthai added that in the game of "feeding bananas to monkeys", an apparent reference to the alleged bankrolling of MPs to cast their vote in a certain way in parliament, the government is counted on to outperform the opposition.
The business of planting and harvesting "bananas" and "feeding" them to willing parties can be played by both the opposition and the government. However, the government can access these bananas more easily and in larger quantities, enabling it to top opposition offers.
So-called "banana feeding" gained public attention during the no-confidence debate in September last year when some renegade Palang Pracharath Party MPs allegedly joined micro-party MPs in trying to oust Gen Prayut by voting against him. However, the mutiny failed and Gen Prayut survived, although he was among the targeted ministers with the fewest votes of confidence.
Mr Thepthai said that a staggering amount of money would be needed to finance a plot to overthrow the government via a parliamentary methods and opponents would be reluctant to "invest" in such a costly exercise unless the chance of them winning an election and being swept to power was guaranteed, which it is not.
He added that coalition parties have no reason to break ranks, a view shared by one political observer who insisted any differences among them have not been irreconcilable and staying united gives them an edge in formulating and executing plans for the next general election.
Also, Mr Thepthai describes the opposition as being inept at keeping tabs on the administration. Pheu Thai became so comfortable running the government for so long that it later found itself out of its depth having to monitor the current administration's performance.
The opposition, he said, has yet to exploit any serious issues concerning the government that would deliver it a knock-out blow.
The opposition camp is disunited in keeping the government in check while the micro-parties, which present vital swing votes in parliament, have been accused of being too preoccupied with pursuing vested interests and self-publicity.
The government, on the other hand, appears to exude confidence in its efforts to impress people, including welfare cards for the poor and the financial aid and relief programmes to mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which are criticised by some as populist.
Mr Thepthai said no other administration has rolled out such programmes on such a scale where they have now reached 20 million people. He said they may be construed as a covert attempt at electioneering ahead of time.
In addition, Gen Prayut's popularity remains generally moderate and even high in some areas, including the South, according to the Democrat veteran.
With less than a year left of the government's term, it may not be worth the trouble toppling it, Mr Thepthai said.
Death knell for small parties?
The outcome of the next general election will be a world away from that of the March 2019 poll now that large political parties appear to have had their way on how party-list seats should be calculated, according to observers.
Somkid: Landscape will change
The country is in need of a new calculation method for the distribution of the party-list seats thanks to the constitutional change which brings back the two-ballot election system.
Major and small parties have locked horns over how the 100 party-list seats should be distributed. Large parties vouch for the use of 100 to divide the number of party-list votes gained by all parties nationwide while small parties are in favour of 500.
The number 100 comes from the total party-list MPs while 500 is the total number of MPs from all the constituencies and party-list.
At this week's meeting of the House-Senate committee vetting the amendments to two organic laws to accommodate the dual-ballot election, members voted 32 for and 11 against to select the use of 100 in the calculation.
With this method adopted in the next poll, the political landscape will change, according to observers. Large parties will win a substantial number of constituency and party-list seats and the minnows are unlikely to get any.
How is that possible? Assuming the total number of party-list votes cast nationwide is 37 million and Party A receives 1 million votes from the party-list contest. When 100 is used in the calculation, the number of votes needed to be allocated a seat will be 370,000, with Party A getting 2.7 party-list seats.
In the 2019 election, small parties needed only 70,000 votes to earn a party-list seat.
This saw more than 10 micro-parties burst onto the political scene. Now, it will be impossible for them to compete with large and medium-sized parties with strong electoral bases, according to observers.
Major and medium-sized political parties admit this calculation method will give them an advantage, but insist it will not wipe out micro-parties.
According to Nikorn Chamnong, secretary of the scrutiny panel and deputy leader of the Chartthaipattana Party, if small parties redefine their policies to target specific groups of voters, they stand a chance in the polls.
Pheu Thai Party MP for Ubon Ratchathani, Somkid Chueakhong, who serves as the scrutiny committee's spokesman, believes the political landscape will change at the next election.
The change is primarily intended to strengthen political parties so that they can deliver campaign promises while small parties will have to work harder to stay in the game, he said.
"The Pheu Thai Party is believed to get an advantage from the change. But I can tell you that we must work hard too. Pheu Thai, the Democrat Party, the Palang Pracharath Party [PPRP] may reap benefits because they have strong support bases," he said.
However, Stithorn Thananithichot, an academic at King Prajadhipok's Institute, argues that small parties have no future if this calculation method is in use. In his opinion, micro-parties will have less bargaining power, sparing the government some "bananas".
Bananas is a term used by former PPRP secretary-general Thamanat Prompow, who compared himself to a monkey keeper feeding "bananas" to small parties to keep them loyal to the government.
The parliament scrutiny of the calculation method is not yet finalised pending the second and third readings in parliament. But observers believe there is a remote chance that the number 500 will be adopted in the next stages of deliberation.
"All the amendments, which were accepted in the first reading, propose the use of 100 in the calculation. It's unlikely they will vote against what they initially agreed on," noted an observer.
However, the use of 100 in the calculation can still be challenged, with small parties likely to take the matter to the Constitutional Court.
