Pheu Thai may not have considered the Bhumjaithai Party as a worthy competitor until but now the main opposition party cannot hide being unnerved by Bhumjaithai's expanding electoral foothold.
For years, Pheu Thai, the biggest political party, has looked to the ruling Palang Pracharath (PPRP), the second-ranked party in terms of size, as its main electoral opponent.
Pheu Thai has tried to outdo the PPRP at every turn, from attacking its alleged failure in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and salvaging an economy in distress, to launching some of the most frequent no-confidence debates in recent years.
Even though no censure motion sponsored by the opposition has achieved its ultimate goal of defeating Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, which would have sent the government packing and led to a general election, they forced the government to raise its guard.
A stiff sense of competition and even animosity typically describes the relationship between the two political titans. However, a recent development may have altered Pheu Thai's perception of who its main rival will be in the next general election slated tentatively for May 7 next year.
On Aug 24, the Constitutional Court ordered that Gen Prayut be suspended as prime minister until it handed down its ruling on his maximum eight-year term limit. The suspension followed the court's acceptance of an opposition petition asking for the ruling.
The court's acceptance of the case is believed by critics to mark a watershed, ushering in a whole new political ball game. At worst, as opponents had anticipated, Gen Prayut would be ruled still eligible to serve as prime minister for another five years, assuming he was re-elected by parliament after the next polls.
As it turned out, the Constitutional Court judged Gen Prayut to have a little more than two years left before he exhausts his time limit.
That may be cheery news for Gen Prayut supporters, although the prime minister is alluded to as a product fast approaching its sell-by date.
The court ruling has effectively diluted the intense political appeal Gen Prayut once had with the PPRP which wasted no time nominating him as its prime ministerial candidate in the previous election.
However, this time around, his having less than two years left to possibly serve could prove a setback for a ruling party in a desperate quest for a candidate who can be prime minister for the long haul after the next polls.
The PPRP has a lot to ponder when it comes to choosing its prime minister candidate or candidates. In the previous polls in 2019, Gen Prayut was the PPRP's only nomination.
An observer said despite his tenure limitation, Gen Prayut is still a strong PPRP candidate for prime minister. But the fact remains that he will never be able to run the course even if he is voted back after the next polls.
Already, some analysts have conjured up a scenario where Gen Prayut and PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon could both be nominated for prime minister on the ruling party's ticket.
The move, however, would be a gamble since both men have suffered a slump in popularity, Gen Prawit by a wider margin.
Without an appealing choice of premier to its name, the PPRP is predicted to suffer at the next polls and its downward spiral is being met with the rapid rise in the political clout and prominence of Bhumjaithai with Pheu Thai watching nervously on the sidelines.
Pheu Thai's critics believe the party's jitters from witnessing Bhumjaithai's surge in fortune -- made possible by its relatively unblemished record during its time in government and the success in pushing its controversial policy to decriminalise cannabis -- may have brought forth the accusation that Pheu Thai was employing expedients to nip Bhumjaithai's fortunes in the bud.
Pheu Thai early this week declared it was determined to bury the Bhumjaithai, believing the coalition party's flagship cannabis policy was done to deceive people into giving it their mandate to acquire power in government.
The policy amounts to a breach of the organic law on political parties, which is grounds for dissolving the party, Pheu Thai said.
Less than 24 hours later, Pheu Thai reversed its position, citing the sensitivity surrounding the dissolution and the need to secure approval from fellow opposition parties before filing for Bhumjaithai's disbandment.
A legal team will undertake the study and decide if there is strong justification and sufficient evidence to back a petition seeking to dissolve Bhumjaithai, said Pheu Thai leader Dr Cholnan Srikaew.
Dr Cholnan insisted that Pheu Thai's proposed disbandment of Bhumjaithai was not politically driven.
The observers said Pheu Thai may have realised it had blundered in trying to dismantle Bhumjaithai because it was losing credibility for what many see as a needless attempt at intimidating a political rival, something Pheu Thai has denied.
Meanwhile, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul said no political party should seek to destroy another and suggested Dr Cholnan be more mature over the issue.
Will he or won't he?
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is at a crossroads where he will have to decide if he will seek to return and serve what remains of his eight-year premiership, according to political observers.
Prayut: Trouble if he goes?
The Sept 30 Constitutional Court ruling that his eight-year term limit started on April 6, 2017, the day the charter was promulgated, means his political career is not over and he can serve until 2025, provided he is re-elected by parliament after the election expected in the first half of next year.
So far, the prime minister has kept everyone guessing about his future and his ambiguity is reportedly getting on the nerves of some of the members of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP).
While its political rivals are parading their potential prime minister candidates, the PPRP has apparently no one to show to its supporters, although party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is seen greeting constituents across the country.
The ruling party needs Gen Prayut's consent to put his name on the party's prime ministerial nomination list, and the best it can do as of now is to say that Gen Prayut has its support if he wishes to stand.
If Gen Prayut chooses to stick with the party and seek to return under its banner, he is expected to change the way he works by rolling up his sleeves and getting his hands dirty, according to observers.
He is known to keep his distance from the party and its members and leave the task of managing its MPs to its leader Gen Prawit.
PPRP MP for Nakhon Sawan and party strategist Veerakorn Kamprakob's recent remark concerning Gen Prayut's political stand is widely believed to reflect the party's sentiment towards the prime minister.
"Gen Prayut must join party executives to work with the party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon to draft the party's policies.
"He can't just stand there and know nothing about the party's issues. Gen Prayut must work with Gen Prawit ... as we only have five or six months left [before the election]," Mr Veerakorn was quoted as saying.
Unless both of them work hand in hand, the party is likely to lose House seats, he said. The party emerged second in the 2019 poll after Pheu Thai, but led the creation of the coalition when Pheu Thai failed to drum up enough support to form a government.
Mr Veerakorn also dismissed as untrue speculation that Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit could part ways, insisting their bond is secure and things will turn out great for the party if Gen Prayut stops keeping his distance and listens more to politicians.
Gen Prayut's aloofness is said to be one of the reasons that many PPRP members are seeking new political homes including in the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party headed by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga.
Ruam Thai Sang Chart is widely seen as a backup party for Gen Prayut even though the latter denies any political association with it. Several key party figures including executive member Witthaya Kaewparadai have not ruled out the possibility of pushing for another Gen Prayut term.
However, not every party can nominate a prime minister candidate. Under the law, a party must have at least 25 House seats out of 500 to be eligible to field one.
The rule is said to be behind the political alliance between the Chart Pattana Party and Korn Chatikavanij who founded the Kla Party. Chart Pattana is now rebranded as the Chartpattanakla Party with Mr Korn taking over the leadership from Tewan Liptapanlop.
Observers are wondering if Ruam Thai Sang Chart will join forces with any pro-Prayut party in a bid to secure the required number of House seats and qualify to nominate a prime minister. Among possible allies is the Action Coalition for Thailand Party (ACT) but the ACT has expressed no interest in aligning with anyone.
Ruam Thai Sang Chart has yet to unveil its prime ministerial candidate or candidates and political observers see no motivation for the party to rush the matter.
Giving Gen Prayut the time he needs to mull over his future is not hurting the party and whether the prime minister chooses to stay with the PPRP or wash his hands of politics altogether, Mr Pirapan can still carry the party flag and he has announced his readiness to lead if he is given the mandate.
