Several politicians in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) are believed to be jumping ship in anticipation of a better chance of winning in the next election.
However, political watchers are more eager to know not when they will exit the party but where they will defect to.
For a while, the watchers had been second-guessing how many PPRP members would be looking for new homes. It has now emerged the PPRP might indeed be bleeding MPs ahead of the election with the party's nightmare confirmed at a recent birthday bash thrown in honour of Bhumjaithai Party strongman, Newin Chidchob, in Buri Ram which is the party's political heartland.
Eight PPRP MPs were spotted at the celebrations on Oct 4. It is believed that it strongly signalled an intention by them to dump the ruling party for its coalition partner.
Other prominent "well-wishers", including the main opposition Pheu Thai and coalition Democrat parties, were also seen mingling at the event.
A source close to the matter said going to a birthday party of high-stature politicians who belong to other parties in the months leading up to a general election was no ordinary social gathering.
It was more or less a show of allegiance to a new party.
As if on cue, Mr Newin took to the floor to offer his two cents on Bhumjaithai's ambition to win at least 120 House seats in the next election tentatively scheduled by the Election Commission for May 7 next year.
Bhumjaithai has steadily grown during this government's term and is now home to more than 60 MPs. Doubling that number in the next polls would not be overly ambitious with help from defectors, many of whom stand a fairly promising chance of beating their rivals, according to the source.
Although the attendees from other parties denied they were switching to Bhumjaithai, their visibly enthusiastic participation at the birthday bash, which saw a large turnout, might give the stalwarts back at the PPRP a lot to think about when they shortlist potential candidates for the next polls.
Also shining bright at the gathering was Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul who also conveyed a wish -- success in landing the premiership after the election.
If the party can pick up between 120-150 MPs, the PPRP captures 50-60 MPs, and the Democrat Party retains its current tally of 50, the present coalition could return to power, although the bloc, as it did following the previous election in 2019, would sit on a very thin majority.
The alliance would then have to invite the Chartthaipattana Party back as a coalition partner to increase its parliamentary majority and escape the "vulnerable zone".
That said, Bhumjaithai could trade places with the PPRP and take over as the lead party in the coalition line-up.
Some vocal critics have predicted the PPRP is set to shrink considerably, come the next general election. The blame lies with Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha having been ruled by the Constitutional Court to have two more possible years left as prime minister.
And there are a lot of "ifs" standing in the way of Gen Prayut returning as prime minister in the next polls. First and foremost, he must consent to be nominated as a prime ministerial candidate of a party. If he does, he must pray that the party which backs him garners enough House seats, in this case at least 25, to win the right to form the next government with the backing of other parties, the source said.
However, unlike in the 2019 general election, Gen Prayut now appears less appealing to voters, being left politically bruised and battered from his handling of crises, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the runaway cost of living.
The government is also being attacked by critics over the alleged easy availability of illicit drugs, which was initially cited as a reason that drove a former policeman to massacre young children at a daycare centre in Nong Bua Lam Phu on Oct 6.
The image deficit, coupled with Gen Prayut running out of available time as prime minister, may justify the growing perceptions in many quarters that Gen Prayut may not be a fitting choice for premier and that someone else with the ability to complete a whole term should be brought in.
Look no further than the Bhumjaithai, said the source.
We'll work with anybody but him
The way things stand, the Pheu Thai Party has a strong chance of emerging victorious in the next general election but forming a single-party government is totally out of the question, according to political observers.
Prayut: Feels the heat from both sides
Pheu Thai is widely expected to capture the largest number of House seats in the upcoming polls and the party itself aims to win between 220 and 250. While this would be considered a decisive victory, it cannot guarantee entry to Government House.
Pheu Thai won the most seats, 136, in the 2019 polls. However, it failed to win over enough parties to form a coalition government. The main opposition party will need to build a coalition of parties to claim a mandate to lead the country's next administration.
This is probably why Pheu Thai leader, Cholnan Srikaew, has kept the door open to the possibility of forging a post-election alliance with the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), although certain preconditions, including withdrawing support for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, will apply.
According to Pheu Thai deputy leader, Sutin Klungsang, it is the 250-member Senate appointed by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that remains a thorn in its side.
Section 272 of the constitution allows senators to join MPs in electing a prime minister and it is this that allowed Gen Prayut to sail back into office with 500 members from both chambers rooting for him after the previous election.
Mr Sutin, an MP for Maha Sarakham and chief opposition whip, has made it clear that joining forces and setting up a government with the so-called pro-regime bloc will be the last resort.
Parties from the self-proclaimed pro-democracy bloc prefer to work with like-minded parties, but if they cannot do so because their ideologies are incompatible, they hold talks with other parties as they look for suitors to form a government with, albeit with one key condition -- that the possible suitors must not support Gen Prayut as prime minister.
"But if we have no choice, we may have to join hands with parties currently in the coalition government such as the PPRP, Bhumjaithai, or the Democrats," Mr Sutin was quoted as saying.
According to Mr Sutin, Pheu Thai will be betraying its supporters if it collaborates with the PPRP or any parties that rally behind Gen Prayut who stands accused of using the Senate to help him prolong his grip on power after the 2014 coup.
In his opinion, Mr Sutin said there is a possibility that Gen Prayut, who was the PPRP's sole prime minister candidate after the 2019 poll, will not pursue his political career with the ruling party at the next election. If this is the case, PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is likely to be the PPRP's prime minister candidate.
"If this happens, the PPRP may join our coalition. In our initial assessment, we believe Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit have gone separate ways," said the Pheu Thai MP.
Several political watchers tend to agree with Mr Sutin over Gen Prayut's political future especially since the premier has less than three years to go before completing his eight-year term limit thanks to a Constitutional Court ruling.
Gen Prayut is not deemed popular among PPRP members, given a series of developments in the party. The latest of which involves one party MP suggesting that Gen Prayut should step aside and free a path for Gen Prawit to run as the party's sole prime ministerial candidate.
Dr Cholnan himself even said Gen Prawit might be a better person than Gen Prayut to ally with after the next election. This was echoed by Seri Ruam Thai leader Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves who said he is open to a tie-up with Gen Prawit, but not Gen Prayut.
According to political observers, Pheu Thai cannot afford to shut the door on the PPRP or other coalition parties largely because of the harsh political stance its current ally, the Move Forward Party (MFP) takes.
The MFP has been campaigning for an amendment to Section 112 of the Criminal Code, more widely known as the lese majeste law, and the proposed amendment is the highlight of the party's campaign pledges unveiled recently.
The MFP is widely believed to be pushing the issue as one of the key conditions for joining a post-election government and this could be a deal breaker for Pheu Thai, according to political observers.
And troubles are looming for the second-largest opposition party. Just days after the launch of its election pledge, a complaint was lodged with the Election Commission (EC) to investigate whether the MFP's platform is in violation of the law.
