Analysts are divided over the notion that the growing estrangement between Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the man he has long respected, Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, could degenerate into a full-blown conflict.
However, some observers doubt whether the country's two most powerful political figures have drifted apart at all. In fact, they remain the closest of buddies.
Gen Prayut's split from the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) led by Gen Prawit and his subsequent move to the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party may have created the impression of a crack in their friendship which made the 2014 coup against the Pheu Thai Party-led administration and the formation of the current government all the more possible.
The observers said there is more to the political power play and the dynamism that bound the two generals together than meets the eye.
For starters, the classic "divide-and-rule" theory applies.
The PPRP had been the wrong fit for Gen Prayut for some time. He apparently did not feel comfortable being surrounded by many "old-school", wheeler-dealer politicians with a history of party-hopping, who are also accused of having a problem with trust.
The highly factional nature of the PPRP also kept Gen Prayut from reining in some party stalwarts, who also served in cabinet posts, under the wing of Gen Prawit.
It was clear that Gen Prayut felt frustrated in an environment where he was supposed to lead a government with certain members who not only refused to toe his line but tried to stab him in the back.
One case in point was the alleged attempt by former PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow to stage a mutiny by mustering ruling party MPs and those from micro parties in casting no-confidence votes against Gen Prayut in a censure debate 2021.
Gen Prayut learned oft the plot, foiled it, and proceeded to sack Capt Thamanat as deputy agriculture minister. Narumon Pinyosinwat, another PPRP executive, was also fired as deputy labour minister allegedly for colluding against the premier.
Capt Thamanat managed to cling on as PPRP secretary-general for many months before he finally left the party to establish the Ruam Phaen Din Party. Prior to his PPRP exit, he remained Gen Prawit's right-hand man, much to Gen Prayut's chagrin.
The observers said that despite Capt Thamanat being shown the door, the PPRP's displeasure with Gen Prayut did not dissipate. The prime minister, although not a member of the PPRP, was expected by some in the party to cosy up to them more, or at least be less aloof.
With the drum rolls starting for the next poll on May 7, marked by amendments to two organic laws on the election of MPs and political parties -- integral for holding a general election -- being published in the Royal Gazette late last month, Gen Prayut arrived at a point where he had to make a possibly critical decision in his political career.
After declaring his intention to seek another term as prime minister, his choice boiled down to sticking with the PPRP or looking for a new political venture.
He opted for the latter and headed to the UTN.
Although some insiders believed Gen Prayut's UTN switch would serve to emasculate him politically since he needed Gen Prawit by his side to perform essential acts behind the scenes for him, the observers thought it might have been a tactically wise thing to do.
It has removed the toxic undercurrent which troubled Gen Prayut in the past, and left Gen Prawit to run the PPRP free of the bother of having to pacify party members regarding Gen Prayut, who is now technically a party outsider.
Gen Prawit is also allowed the opportunity to shine as a presumptive PPRP prime ministerial candidate.
At the same time, Gen Prayut has found himself in the company of politicians he wants to do business with at the UTN, which is led by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, hand-picked by Gen Prayut to fill the coveted post of PM secretary-general.
Quite a few UTN heavyweights were named as Gen Prayut's advisers in recent appointments, which critics said were part of a devious plan that lets the UTN gain an unfair advantage in the next election.
Both Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit have reiterated on many occasions that their personal ties, harking back to their early years in the military, are firmly intact despite going their separate ways in politics.
The two generals are already trying to upstage one another and claiming credit over who between Gen Prayut and the PPRP initiated public projects that may work in their favour in formulating their respective party election manifestos.
The observers said the PPRP may have moved faster in establishing its economic team made up of Uttama Savanayana, Sontirat Sontijirawong and Mingkwan Sangsuwan. Mr Uttama and Mr Sontirat, who co-founded the PPRP, have returned to the ruling party after having resigned in 2020.
The UTN, on the other hand, has not yet unveiled its experts in economic affairs, one area where the government has not fared well in the eyes of voters.
The two parties may be taking different paths when it comes to figuring out strategies to win votes. Both could rake in a combined 100 House seats or more in the next poll.
If their close ally, the Bhumjaithai Party, captured 120-150 seats and the Democrat Party walked away with 30-50, the final figure between them could be sufficient to form the next government. That could be the incentive for both Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit to continue nurturing that bond between them.
Returning to the fray?
Former prime minister and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is strongly tipped to return to the political scene after an almost four-year hiatus.
Abhisit: Unyielding political views
He walked away after resigning as a list MP when the party agreed to join the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP)-led coalition.
With a general election just around the corner, there are whispers he is being approached by Democrat leader Jurin Laksanawisit, through key party figures, to contest the election in the party-list system.
Mr Jurin, who was this week named as the party's prime ministerial candidate, has reportedly reserved the fourth spot on the list for his predecessor -- after himself and two other former Democrat leaders, Chuan Leekpai and Banyat Bantadtan.
Taking a recent Nida Poll party popularity survey into account, Mr Abhisit has a good chance of being elected if he is in fourth spot, according to observers. With approval at 5.35%, the Democrats should capture five to six party-list seats.
However, details about Mr Abhisit's role in the party's election campaign have not been discussed. He retains his membership but has had no role in the party for the last four years.
Observers are following speculation about Mr Abhisit's possible return with great interest.
If the Democrat Party fares poorly at the polls, its executives will be forced to step down in a revamp in which Mr Abhisit may be re-elected as party leader. It would be interesting to see where he will lead the party.
Mr Abhisit is widely known for his unwavering political views, which is why he put his political career on hold, according to observers.
He announced his resignation as party leader back in March 2019 to honour a promise to quit if the party won fewer than 100 House seats.
The Democrats fell well short of that target, capturing only 53 seats in what was said to be the worst election result in years for the country's oldest party.
Observers reckoned that the poor showing in Bangkok was particularly shocking as the party did not win a single seat. The humiliating loss may have had everything to do with Mr Abhisit's announcement that he would not support Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's staying in power.
When the party decided to join the PPRP-led bloc and vote for Gen Prayut as the premier, Mr Abhisit quit as an MP. He was said to prefer the party assuming the role of an independent opposition party.
In the upcoming polls, analysts believe he will stick to this stance if he decides to return as a party MP.
Mr Abhisit will not support the party forming a government with the Gen Prawit Wongsuwon-led PPRP or with the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, which has Gen Prayut as its chief strategist and presumptive prime ministerial candidate.
According to observers, Mr Abhisit will, without doubt, also oppose working with Pheu Thai.
Given his unyielding political standpoint, Mr Abhisit appears ready to sit on the opposition bench, but that is something Democrat heavyweights are not prepared to do.
Democrat executives are said to be highly confident the party will be invited to join a coalition government if Gen Prayut is selected by parliament to return as premier and serve for two more years, as allowed by the constitution. Gen Prayut is ready to work with any party except Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party.
However, the big question remains: Can the Democrat Party keep its seats?
In the last election, the Democrats and the Bhumjaithai Party, which between them had 103 seats, were the deciding factor when Pheu Thai and the PPRP competed to form a government. Things have changed a lot since.
Several observers are convinced that Pheu Thai, the PPRP and Bhumjaithai are likely to forge an alliance and form a government, thereby leaving no room for the Democrats. Some even note that there is no guarantee Bhumjaithai will be included if Pheu Thai and the PPRP command a large majority in the House.
Some analysts cannot see the Democrats winning more than 40 seats and say the party will have to fight hard to get that number which would make it a strong opposition party if it ends up being one.
