Driving up poll goals is the name of the game for many political parties competing in general elections.
And if there is a party accused of setting a very ambitious poll target, the main opposition Pheu Thai Party would definitely take the biscuit, according to observers.
What many opinion polls have in common is that they consistently have Pheu Thai as the clear favourite to win most House seats in the next poll scheduled for May 14. But how many seats Pheu Thai will walk away with is anyone's guess.
Pheu Thai was one of the first parties to hit the pre-election campaign trail. The party came across as being well-prepared for the poll.
A source said the party has also carried out its own survey to gauge its pre-election campaign performance and assess whether its ultimate goal of a landslide win remains tenable.
However, critics doubt the validity of such internal surveys. They were conducted either by their own members working on the ground or local pollsters commissioned to do the job. Many times, findings from these "opinion polls" were not professionally compiled and failed to meet polling standards, marring their credibility.
The critics have joked that if the House seats the individual parties projected they would win were to be added together, the number could run into thousands, as opposed to the 500 seats that are really up for grabs.
From the outset, Pheu Thai believed it could work its magic by attracting voters from red-shirt groups, like it did in previous elections, and win the next poll outright by sweeping most constituencies and collecting enough seats to form the next government solo.
However, its falling out with several red-shirt factions in some provinces has threatened to dent Pheu Thai's popularity. Many red-shirt members complained they were mistreated by the party after their leaders failed to make the cut as Pheu Thai election candidates and switched to other parties including the Bhumjaithai Party, thought to be Pheu Thai's most dangerous opponent in the election.
Despite expecting an intensified struggle in the lead-up to the poll, Pheu Thai has never been modest about its House seats target. Late last year, it announced it was aiming for at least 250 seats, half of the available number in the House of Representatives.
However, that figure has kept going up since, to 270 and most recently, to 310.
Jatuporn Prompan, chairman of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and now one of Pheu Thai's most vocal critics, said the party's seat target has continued to rise to the point where it risks becoming a runaway number.
Reading between the lines, the former protest leader said the number, that opponents call a gross exaggeration, should be a possible, subtle warning to other opposition parties. Pheu Thai is zeroing in on establishing a single-party government, which implies it is not very interested in inviting other parties to form a coalition.
Regardless of how friendly the current opposition parties are with each other, there are no friends in elections and Pheu Thai's gain would be a fellow opposition party's loss, Mr Jatuporn said, apparently referring to Move Forward, the second-largest party in the opposition bloc.
Mr Jatuporn said in practice, voters rarely choose a party outside of their preferred bloc. For example, traditional supporters of Pheu Thai would tend to, if they decided to vote for another party, cast their ballots for a party aligned to or share Pheu Thai's political stance.
That said, swing votes would more often than not be an "intra-bloc" occurrence, which means parties in the alliance would be making inroads into one another's pool of supporters, according to Mr Jatuporn.
He said Pheu Thai is not shy to declare at campaign rallies that there are no "brother or sister" parties in an election race.
Mr Jatuporn, on his political talk show Prathet Thai Tong Ma Gorn (Thailand Must Come First) last week, expressed curiosity as to how Pheu Thai arrived at its 310-seat target.
For a party to revise up its target so steeply within a short span of time, there must have been a spectacularly encouraging turn of events that tipped the scales of public sentiment in favour of the party, which would give it a tremendous lift at the poll.
However, according to Mr Jatuporn, such a twist has been non-existent so far for Pheu Thai.
"Who knows, it [Pheu Thai's House seat target] might be jacked up to 400 tomorrow," Mr Jatuporn said sarcastically.
Ducking the questions
Former Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's decision to not contest the general election is said to have relieved his supporters who fear a much bigger failure looms for the party and prefer him to not have any part in it.
His supporters and political watchers were keen to know if Mr Abhisit would actively return to politics in the current political climate, where the election is speculated to again to be a showdown between the pro-Thaksin and pro-Prayut camps.
Abhisit: 'Opting out' relieves supporters
Mr Abhisit is known to be vehemently against the party being part of a government with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Palang Pracharath Party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and the Pheu Thai Party in it.
He stepped down as a party-list MP when the Democrats backed Gen Prayut as prime minister after the 2019 contest. Many believed the party was unceremoniously dumped by voters in the last polls because of his stance towards Gen Prayut. The party only won 53 seats -- less than half the number it secured in 2011.
Democrat supporters learned this week of Mr Abhisit's decision to opt out of the May 14 polls. He said he did so to avoid the inevitable questions regarding his views, that were bound to be put to the party if he ran as a list candidate.
He said he was afraid his answer might go against the party's stance. "If I run for a seat, it will cause more problems than it solves. The question is bound to come up on the first day of the campaign and up until the last," Mr Abhisit said.
Coincidently, his decision comes amid reports about a possible alliance between the Democrat Party and Pheu Thai after the polls.
Under this formula, Pheu Thai, which is predicted to take the next polls by storm, will be the core party in a coalition backed by its long-time political rival, the Democrats, and another smaller party.
According to a party source, after being part of the government for four years, some Democrat heavyweights do not wish the party to be in opposition and are warming to the idea of burying the hatchet and joining hands with Pheu Thai.
Party figures are eyeing the Chartthaipattana Party led by Varawut Silpa-archa as a potential partner in a Pheu Thai-led coalition, according to the source.
Chartthaipattana, which won 12 seats in 2019, aims to secure at least 25 House seats in the coming election and has a good chance of capturing more seats if Pheu Thai pulls its punches in some constituencies.
According to the source, Pheu Thai is said to be open to the idea of working with the Democrats to avoid pressure from the Palang Pracharath (PPRP) and Bhumjaithai parties.
The PPRP led by Gen Prawit and Bhumjaithai headed by Anutin Charnvirakul are suffering a popularity slump and may not meet their seat targets. Both have reportedly decided to form a pact to increase their bargaining power when it comes to forming a coalition government.
According to the source, a PPRP-Bhumjaithai alliance will drive a hard bargain if and when they are approached by Pheu Thai. The Democrats, on the other hand, are unlikely to set tough conditions and they are not quite sure if Gen Prayut can make a comeback, so it is best to keep the party's options open.
Moreover, Pheu Thai has recently raised its seat target to 310, indicating the degree of confidence it has in winning the election. An outright victory and support from smaller parties should allow the party to muster more than 375 votes to prevent the coup-appointed Senate from having a decisive role in co-electing a prime minister.
"Key Democrat figures have evaluated the situation and found it harder to retain the party's support base. They're setting out to find new supporters," said the source.
According to the source, if the Democrat Party goes down this path, it will risk going from a medium-sized party to a small one and lose the opportunity to restore public faith and confidence in it.
With this prospect awaiting the party, Mr Abhisit's supporters welcome his decision to stand down so that he does not have to bear any responsibility if and when the party plunges to a new low.
