Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has vowed to go into retirement, raising questions about what will become of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party of which he served as its patriarch.
Gen Prayut surprised many on July 10 when he announced his decision to wash his hands of politics after nine years in power since heading the coup-engineer National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) in toppling the Pheu Thai Party-led administration in May 2014.
Gen Prayut arrived at a crucial crossroads where he had to decide between carrying on his political career and seeking a second term in office and turning his back on the power he has held for nearly a decade.
The UTN suffered a setback in the May 14 polls in which it fell short of its target, having won only 35 House seats from the constituency and party list systems.
The party had banked on having at least one MP from each of the 77 provinces in the constituency method, in addition to more from popular, nationwide votes in the list system.
It transpired that the UTN fared rather disappointingly in the constituency competition but did exceptionally well in the party list race, having raked in more than four million votes, propelling it to fourth place among the parties with the most popular votes. It was not bad for a party which has only been in existence for a relatively short period of time, according to an observer.
The UTN came into inception with the blessing of Gen Prayut, who severed ties with the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) led by his deeply respected brother-in-arms, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, who is also a deputy prime minister.
It had been widely reported Gen Prayut was not too keen on doing business with some PPRP politicians who also complained on occasions that the premier was aloof with them.
Gen Prayut's trust and patience with the PPRP was pushed to the limit after one prominent member, Capt Thamanat Prompow, was accused of plotting with the help of micro-parties to bring the premier down in a no-confidence debate in 2021. However, the revolt was unsuccessful.
The UTN was apparently positioned as Gen Prayut's vehicle to further his political cause. But his ambitions were dashed by the party's less than flattering poll results, which saw the UTN end up as the fifth-largest party, according to the observer.
In the broader picture, any hope of the UTN sticking with previous coalition parties and forming a new government again was also dashed as this line-up now only commands 188 MPs, which is way below half the seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
At the same time, the MFP-led, eight-party coalition was at its wit's end in assembling a new government. It was confronted by a major obstacle on July 13 when MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat was rejected by the Senate and many MPs during a joint sitting to elect a new prime minister.
There was speculation the UTN might try setting up a minority government. It was theorised that if Gen Prayut, who is one of two UTN prime ministerial candidates, was to try to put together a government, the previous coalition, as well as the majority of senators, whom the NCPO had hand-picked, would back him.
However, UTN leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga was quick to dismiss the speculation since political experts thought that a minority government would be short-lived and plunge the country back into political turmoil as it would not be able to push through important pieces of legislation.
Gen Prayut then made up his mind to exit politics permanently. Expressing his thoughts in a statement on the UTN's official Facebook page, he explained his decision to quit and urged members to continue to nurture the party and make it grow.
But the UTN minus Gen Prayut has been compared to a hollowed-out tree waiting to wither and die. The UTN has been ridiculed for riding on Gen Prayut's political fortunes and descending slowly into a "shell party".
Also, the party is factional, having consolidated itself from groups of seasoned politicians who defected mostly from the PPRP and the Democrat Party.
These groups may not always find one another agreeable, especially between the PPRP alumni with the likes of former labour minister Suchart Chomklin and those who migrated from the Democrats, including Mr Pirapan and the party secretary-general Akanat Promphan.
The observer said it may only be a matter of time before members go their separate ways. Some might be planning to return to the Democrat fold, while others could be contemplating a PPRP comeback or even moving to the Pheu Thai Party.
Casting off the shackles
Now that Move Forward Party (MFP) prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat has been knocked back twice for PM, observers reckon that unless Pheu Thai Party loses its main ally, its own candidate will not succeed in becoming premier either.
Pita: Knocked back twice for PM
But Pheu Thai will need to be able to justify the move when it is time to walk away from the eight-party alliance formed shortly after the May 14 general election to avoid the wrath of bloc supporters who will see the break-up as a betrayal, according to the observers.
Pheu Thai's meeting with five non-aligned parties on July 22-23 at its HQ to "find a way to remove the political roadblock" is thus widely seen as an attempt to isolate the MFP.
Bhumjaithai, the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, and the Chartthaipattana and Chartpattanakla parties all refused to support a Pheu Thai candidate if the MFP remains in the coalition.
Their ultimatum spells doom for MFP aspirations to be the new government's ruling party, according to observers.
The MFP appeared to be isolated when Plung Sungkom Mai, a minnow in the eight-party bloc, recently suggested that Pheu Thai be allowed to alter the memorandum of understanding (MoU) where appropriate.
The MoU outlined policies to be pursued by the coalition government, assuming the eight parties succeed in forming one.
According to the small party, the MFP has already handed over the right to lead the formation of a new government to Pheu Thai, so the MoU is now void.
On the Senate front, Pheu Thai is said to have received a similar ultimatum from the military-appointed Upper House, with more than 100 senators expressing a willingness to vote for Srettha Thavisin or the party's two other prime ministerial candidates if the MFP is out of the picture.
Observers believe Pheu Thai is unlikely to nominate anyone without being assured first that its candidate will receive the required support, although the party has three shots.
A highly placed source in Pheu Thai admitted the party does not want to waste any of its candidates.
When the party's executive board decides to nominate Mr Srettha, it wants him elected at the first attempt during the joint sitting.
"However, if the MFP is tagging along [nominating its prime ministerial candidate], we're doomed to fail and will have to find a replacement in a later selection round," said the source.
"We can't kick it [the MFP] out of the coalition. We can't proceed with government formation unless the MFP faces the hard truth and willingly retreats into the opposition of its own accord," said the source.
Time is now on the MFP's side to coordinate with its partners in working out the best alternative because Pheu Thai has also hit a roadblock, according to observers.
The Office of Ombudsman has decided to seek a Constitutional Court ruling on parliament's rejection of Mr Pita's renomination on July 19. This prompted Parliament President Wan Muhamad Noor Matha to postpone a second prime ministerial vote pending the court's review.
The court is scheduled to decide on Aug 3 if it will accept the case for deliberation. It can either reject the Ombudsman's petition or accept it and suspend the prime minister selection process until a ruling.
Whatever the outcome, Pheu Thai is expected to use this period to convince the eight-party bloc to consider its options that could end the government formation impasse, said the source.
One possible option is for Pheu Thai to ask its partners to vote to eject the MFP in exchange for keeping them as members of a new coalition government.
"It is believed more than half the bloc will vote to kick the MFP out even though it won the most seats in the election. They all want to be part of the government," said the Pheu Thai source.
But a void left by the MFP would need to be filled by parties from the opposing camp, which together command 188 seats.
According to the source, Pheu Thai is certain to face criticism from its supporters if it brings rival parties into the coalition. But what is most frightening for Pheu Thai is that many of its supporters might abandon the party and vote for the MFP in the next poll.
Pheu Thai has had a glimpse of what could be coming its way if it forms a new government with parties from the outgoing coalition, according to observers.
Following last week's meeting with opposing camp parties, some coffee shops announced they had dropped mint chocolate from their menu in protest. The beverage, a favourite of Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was served to the representatives of the five parties from the opposing camp.
"We must do our best to explain the situation to our supporters and make them see we can't let the chance of setting up a government slip away. If we fail and run out of options, it means the third-largest party [the Bhumjaithai Party] will form the coalition.
"Parting ways with the MFP is inevitable," said the source.
