The Senate's bid to hold a general debate may be seen as a stab in the back for a government it helped take office.
However, there is no escaping the reality that the so-called neo-conservative camp, which the Pheu Thai Party-led government has come to represent, retains a steadfast symbiotic relationship with the Senate.
This is the legacy of the previous administration, which was accused of having inherited power from the May 2014 coup, according to observers.
The government received its first grilling during the budget expenditure bill debate in parliament just after New Year. It was a high-stakes session for the government, which would have been ousted if the bill had been voted down.
As expected, however, it sailed through.
The Move Forward Party (MFP) controlled opposition, which includes the Democrat Party, had a go at firing salvo at the government. Now, it is the Senate's turn to give the government a run for its money.
While the budget bill debate centred largely on allocating funds to ministries and the worthiness of spending plans, what the Senate has in store will be to hold the government to account for allegedly paying lip service to the law and looking to plunder the national coffers for a major populist spending spree.
A general debate is basically powerless to bring down a government since it does not involve casting a no-confidence vote, although it can easily expose or draw people's attention to potentially damning allegations which could bring the government into serious disrepute.
The Senate's political development committee recently agreed to initiate a general debate on the government's implementation of its policies and was supposed to have started gathering support immediately, according to Senator Seree Suwanpanont, the panel chair.
A general debate may be submitted under Section 153 of the charter to Senate Speaker Pornpetch Wichitcholchai, and it requires support from one-third of senators, or 84.
Sen Seree said the motion to launch the debate was backed by many senators, with the digital wallet policy, charter amendment plan and the role of the Department of Corrections in enforcing court orders among key issues to be raised. Others include the government's alleged failure to tackle corruption and the suppression of pork smuggling.
The observers agreed any of these issues could be an Achilles heel for the government.
Pheu Thai is desperate to roll out its flagship digital wallet scheme -- its biggest and most highly anticipated election promise.
The government, aware of the controversy encompassing the handout policy, skirted around danger by planning to offer the wallet giveaway via a bill rather than an executive decree, which bypasses parliament scrutiny and is, therefore, quicker to implement.
A bill requires careful consideration by lawmakers before the scheme's fate is decided. If the bill is shot down in parliament, those who sank it would be blamed, leaving Pheu Thai in the clear over the wallet scheme's demise.
But the ruling party is leaving many confused having to listen to it defending the urgency of implementing the policy.
On the one hand, Pheu Thai insists the scheme must be put to work right away to deliver the crisis-hit economy a shot in the arm, which should have needed the enactment of an executive decree. However, the party decided to take the slow path and opted for a bill instead, which typically takes months to pass.
The charter amendment wrangle has also landed Pheu Thai in hot water as critics feel the government is making cosmetic changes to the constitution, which would not be worth the time, effort or money to do.
If three charter amendment referenda were adopted, the cost would be at least 10 billion baht, and the ensuing charter rewrite, which necessitates forming a redrafting assembly, would take months.
Then there is the saga over former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's extended hospitalisation outside of prison. Widely respected by Pheu Thai, he was admitted to a premium ward at the Police General Hospital a few hours after being sent to Bangkok Remand Prison, following his return from years of self-imposed exile on Aug 22 last year.
Thaksin, who, upon returning to Thailand, was sentenced to eight years in prison, was later granted a royal pardon in which the term was commuted to one year.
Under DoC regulations, permission to stay outside prison for more than 120 days for medical reasons requires formal approval by doctors treating the prisoner, as well as by the prison chief, to be submitted in writing to the department's director-general, who must also inform the justice minister first, according to the Justice Ministry.
Sen Seree's committee has taken stock of what it deems as unnerving developments and has decided to seek an explanation via a general debate.
It may well be the last time this sitting Senate, whose term expires in May, can come close to harming the government.
However, some critics doubt many senators will stand up and take part in the grilling.
After all, the majority co-elected Srettha Thavisin as prime minister to fend off the MFP. It was a case of the conservative bloc choosing Pheu Thai as the lesser of two evils, which has now emerged as a neo-conservative party.
The notion of some senators winning wide support from among their ranks in dressing down Pheu Thai may not come to fruition, the observers said.
Still posing a threat
Former Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat's triumphant return to parliament after his six-month suspension as an MP could have considerable repercussions for the ruling Pheu Thai Party, according to observers.
A popular and influential figure, Mr Pita's comeback can energise MFP supporters. There is also the fact that the MFP prime ministerial candidate announced boldly that he is aiming for the ultimate prize -- Government House.
This came when asked how confident he was he would not have to leave parliament again.
The Constitutional Court ruled on Jan 24 that the 42,000 shares he held in iTV, an independent broadcaster founded in the 1990s, did not violate the law and lifted its MP suspension order because the firm is no longer engaged in media operations.
"If I have to leave, I will only head to Government House," Mr Pita was quoted as saying.
The question about his political future was based on another legal challenge the MFP and he faced in the Constitutional Court.
Mr Pita and the main opposition party returned to the court this week to hear whether its campaign pledge to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code -- the lese majeste law -- was in a breach of the charter.
On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court ruled that the MFP's amendment push was an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
As a result, the MFP now faces the prospect of dissolution and a political ban for its executive members -- the same fate its predecessor, the Future Forward Party, met years ago. But this process could take some time.
Prior to the ruling, however, it was thought that a favourable outcome would strengthen the MFP and bolster Mr Pita's bid to vie for the premiership and pile pressure on Pheu Thai, which is grooming Paetongtarn Shinawatra, its leader, for the post.
Paetongtarn: May bid to become PM
Speculation is also rife that the MFP might also seek to reinstate Mr Pita as party leader at its annual meeting scheduled in April. Mr Pita, currently the party's advisory chairman, stepped down as leader last year following his suspension to allow Chaithawat Tulathon to succeed him and become opposition leader.
Several observers say the political scene will heat up if Mr Pita and Ms Paetongtarn compete for the coveted prime minister seat.
However, Pheu Thai needs to step up efforts to keep up with the MFP, which appears to be one step ahead of other political parties in planning and executing campaigns to maintain its support base and win over voters.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, told the Bangkok Post that the ruling party had adjusted its strategy to try and gain wider support by sponsoring a bill to change a constitutional provision governing a referendum for a charter amendment.
The Pheu Thai Party is also said to be setting up a "Pheu Thai Academy" to ensure that its MPs are well-equipped to represent and deliver the party's agenda and engage more robustly in House debates, according to the analyst.
The ruling party is following in the footsteps of the MFP, whose MPs delivered an impressive performance in the recent House debate on the 2024 budget bill. They were said to have benefited from coaching provided by academics, he noted.
According to Mr Thanaporn, Pheu Thai's strategy change is a positive development as the party has so far focused on showcasing its leader. Although the party tries to capitalise on Ms Paetongtarn's enthusiasm and profile, the strategy is not as effective as the approach taken by the MFP.
The MFP has been engaged with people at the grassroots level through forums and its party branches that have sprung up in almost every district, not just the provinces.
Mr Thanaporn said the MFP is building its support base aggressively, while key Pheu Thai figures are content with their cabinet posts and the perks of their positions and have lost sight of the importance of strengthening connections with people.
If donations to political parties can indicate the size of their support base, the MFP would have had four times the members of the ruling party, the analyst suggested.
The MFP received the largest number of donations totalling 36 million baht, while Pheu Thai, which got the second largest number, received 9 million baht. The amount the Pheu Thai got was a quarter of the MFP's total, he noted.
The Pheu Thai leader has a daunting challenge ahead of her in reconciling differences among the party MPs, many of whom are from various political dynasties, Mr Thanaporn insisted, adding that she has to reset their way of thinking and align members towards a common goal.
"I think Ms Paetongtarn is adjusting strategy to expand the support base, and if the party gets to work now, it may be able to catch the MFP up when the next election comes in three years," he said.
