The road to writing a brand-new charter promises to be long and winding.
In fact, as the government rolls out a tentative timetable for the rewriting, the task looks increasingly daunting for one party.
Pundits were under the impression that Pheu Thai, now that it has settled comfortably into the role of a ruling party, was no longer serious about pursuing a charter rewrite despite having promised voters during last year’s election to put together a supreme law that is democratic both in letter and spirit.
Most disappointed of all is the Move Forward Party (MFP), which fought side by side with Pheu Thai to replace the current charter they branded the product of a dictatorship when both parties were in opposition during the previous Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
The MFP has vented its frustration on various occasions at the slow pace at which the proposed charter changes are proceeding.
A source said the main opposition party has every reason to hold out hope that a new constitution if expeditiously promulgated, might be the party’s saving grace.
On March 12, the Election Commission unanimously resolved to petition the Constitutional Court to disband the MFP, and the court accepted the case for a hearing.
Referring to the court’s Jan 31 ruling, in which it found MFP efforts to change Section 112 of the Criminal Code — the lese majeste law — amounted to an intention to undermine the constitutional monarchy, the commission argues that the MFP also violated Section 92 of the organic law on political parties. This section authorises the court to dissolve any party posing a threat to the constitutional monarchy.
The source said if the charter redraft could reset the existing rule that authorises the Constitutional Court to disband a political party, the MFP could escape the axe.
However, recent information released by the government about the charter rewrite timeframe was not reassuring for the MFP.
While the Constitutional Court ruling on the EC’s petition against the MFP could be handed down before the middle of the year, the charter rewrite could take years to complete, according to Chartthaipattana Party list MP Nikorn Chamnong who heads the subcommittee gathering opinions on the proposed overhaul of the entire 2017 charter.
The Nikorn subpanel works under the government-appointed committee led by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai to study the referendums to be staged as an integral part of the charter rewrite effort.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin confirmed the Phumtham committee’s decision to hold three referendums before a new charter can be passed, much to the chagrin of the MFP.
The first will ask voters whether they agree with writing a new charter. If the majority agrees, the second referendum will ask if Section 256 should be amended to allow for the drafting of a new charter.
Once a new charter is produced, the government will hold a third referendum, asking voters to decide whether it should be adopted.
The MFP insists two should suffice. MFP list MP Rangsiman Rome has said two would save money and time while still complying with the constitution.
Mr Nikorn said recently he expected the first referendum to take place either at the end of July or in early August and cost around 3.2 billion baht. The two other referendums are each estimated to carry more or less an equal price tag, meaning the government will run up a bill of almost 10 billion baht.
He also said the entire process associated with promulgating a new charter would be completed before the government leaves office in less than four years’ time.
The source said there was little for Pheu Thai to lose or gain from replacing the current charter and it might be less incentivised than the MFP, and certainly in no hurry, to push through the constitutional amendment business.
In practical terms, the referendum law itself poses a barrier to a new charter becoming a reality. It stipulates a clause on the “double majority” requirement where more than 50% of eligible voters must participate in a referendum, and a majority of those voting must approve the new charter.
Mr Srettha said recently the cabinet has reached a decision to modify the Referendum Act 2021 with the aim of abolishing the “double majority” rule to enable a new charter to sail through a referendum easier.
Caught in the crosshairs
Apparent tensions between the Pheu Thai Party-led government and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) are now out in the open after Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra took a swipe at the BoT’s monetary policy and questioned its independence.
Speaking at a party event on May 3, Ms Paetongtarn weighed in on the dispute between Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and the BoT which has refused to comply with the government’s plea for interest rate cuts.
According to Ms Paetongtarn, the BoT’s monetary policy has placed a burden on the government’s fiscal policy and the law which keeps the central bank independent from the government hinders efforts to resolve economic issues.
“If the BoT doesn’t understand and cooperate with the government [in its efforts to tackle economic problems], we can’t [win],” she told the event’s attendees.
Paetongtarn: Rate speech stirs alarm
Ms Paetongtarn’s criticism of the central bank, whose independence is widely perceived as crucial for maintaining economic stability and credibility, has stirred controversy, with critics raising concerns about the potential for political interference in monetary policy.
Sirikanya Tansakul, a deputy leader of the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), said the ruling coalition may use its majority in parliament to push for an amendment to the Bank of Thailand Act to curb the BoT’s independence.
“It’s wrong to force the BoT to fall in line with government goals. It is also incorrect to think that the BoT’s independence is an obstacle to fixing economic woes,” said the MFP list-MP.
For other critics, Ms Paetongtarn’s comments are alarming regardless of the reassurances from Mr Srettha that no plans were afoot to remove the BoT governor or amend the law. However, the critics doubt whether the prime minister is really in the driver’s seat.
Paroled former minister Thaksin Shinawatra, known as the de facto leader of Phue Thai, is not a believer in BoT independence. It is not the first time that the central bank has faced political pressure from a Pheu Thai administration.
“We must keep an eye on this and see if the Pheu Thai-led government will do what Ms Paetongtarn’s remarks imply. Some people say Ms Paetongtarn was just reading from the script, but I think she has inherited it [Thaksin’s belief the BoT should not be independent].
“And everybody knows who is pulling the strings and what that person thinks,” said former Democrat MP Sathit Wongnongtoey.
In Ms Paetongtarn’s defence, Pheu Thai stalwarts argued that their party leader’s remarks were just a call for greater coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to address economic problems.
Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai also pointed out that the BoT is not above criticism.
“It is not an agency that cannot be criticised. Ms Paetongtarn’s criticism shows she is sincere and concerned that the BoT’s refusal to cut interest rates will affect people,” said Mr Phumtham.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, thought Mr Phumtham’s response was off the mark because the BoT has always faced public scrutiny.
“But critics, including the press, have never indicated an intention to intervene in its work,” he said.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the Pheu Thai leader’s speech on May 3 was a total disaster. Her remarks were misguided, making the public question her grasp of basic economic principles.
Reading from a script without really understanding the issues she discusses, Ms Paetongtarn stands in stark contrast to Ms Sirikanya, who displays a thorough understanding of economic policymaking, said the analyst.
“Ms Paetongtarn should know better and avoid economic issues until she has gained insight into the economic system or is able to distinguish the differences between household debt and public debt,” he said.
There is a need for Ms Paetongtarn, who is being groomed as the party’s next prime minister, to acquire training and mentorship and focus on educating herself about economic principles and policies to prepare for the role, according to Mr Thanaporn.
Now that the Pheu Thai Party Academy is in place to develop the potential of Pheu Thai members, the ruling party can draw on its resources to support Ms Paetongtarn’s political maturity, he said.
“Ms Paetongtarn failed that day. She might be overconfident. Unless she is better equipped, she doesn’t stand a chance in a debate with anyone from the MFP,” he said.
As things stand now, the Pheu Thai Party, perceived as neo-conservative to fend off the MFP, seems to be no match for the main opposition party, according to Mr Thanaporn.
Pheu Thai’s younger MPs appear to lack vision in achieving party goals despite the party leading the coalition, he noted.
