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One man’s warning could ignite another man’s yearning for a general election, not that one is in the pipeline.
Some politicians have been spooked by what they consider to be the possibility of an early election, fuelled by an emerging rift between the ruling Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.
Ties have been amicable for the most part since they formed the government after last year’s general election.
Bhumjaithai landed the coveted Interior Ministry, among other prized cabinet portfolios. The post of interior minister has been held by party leader Anutin Charnvirakul uninterrupted, first under Srettha Thavisin and now under Paethongtarn Shinawatra’s administration.
There is no disputing the fact that the interior minister porfolio provides considerable influence in the government. It is typically reserved for the ruling party, although under Pheu Thai stewardship, the ruling party decided to give it to Bhumjaithai, a gesture showing the former’s acceptance of the latter’s strong position as a negotiator, according to an observer.
However, relations between the two parties have been put to the test at times.
During the previous government, then prime minister Mr Srettha declared he was moving to reclassify cannabis as a narcotic — a reversal of Bhumjaithai’s policy to decriminalise the plant, which was successfully implemented in 2022 during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
Tensions eased when Pheu Thai compromised by expressing support for the enactment of a bill to regulate cannabis use for medical and research purposes, a move widely seen as a signal that the plant would remain off the narcotic drugs list.
The switch from the Srettha government to the current administration saw more friction looming large on the horizon.
The two parties were not seeing eye to eye over the size of the majority required to pass a charter amendment referendum. The 200-member Senate reversed the House of Representatives’ move to use a simple majority instead of a double majority to make it easier for referendums on constitutional amendments to pass.
Critics accused Bhumjaithai of possibly pulling the Senate’s strings, considering that more than half the senators are labelled as having a “blue” affiliation. Blue is the colour of Bhumjaithai.
The party abstained from voting to reject the Senate’s move “for the sake of being thorough”. It transpired that the disagreement over the size of the majority required for charter referendums to pass could not be resolved by the joint House-Senate committee, and this is predicted to delay charter amendments beyond the life of the current government.
The latest test of Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai ties comes in the form of the Khao Kradong land controversy in Buri Ram, Bhumjaithai’s political stronghold.
It is thought the dispute between the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) and the Department of Lands (DoL) could escalate into open conflict and widen cracks between the two coalition partners.
This is because the SRT is under the supervision of Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit of Pheu Thai, while the DoL is overseen by Mr Anutin as interior minister.
The controversy has hit Bhumjaithai where it hurts most. The Chidchob family, which founded the party and runs several businesses, including the Buriram International Circuit and a 32,600-seat football stadium, is reportedly linked to the controversy.
The dispute centres on land plots totalling 5,083 rai in the Khao Kradong area of Buri Ram’s Muang district. The SRT is seeking to reclaim the plots, accusing the DoL of malfeasance for issuing land papers to illegal occupants.
The SRT filed a case with the Administrative Court in September 2021 demanding the DoL revoke its 900 land title deeds and remove all occupants from its property after the Supreme Court, in the same year, said that the land belonged to the SRT.
Of the 900 land title deeds, 12, which covered 179 rai, reportedly belonged to the Chidchob family.
The observer said two options may be open to Pheu Thai — leave the controversy unresolved and keep the government intact or play hardball close to the end of the government’s tenure and exert its electoral muscle over Bhumajthai.
However, the Khao Kradong tussle is apparently not playing out fast enough for Pheu Thai list MP Cherdchai Tantisirin, who recently picked the charter amendment referendum as ammunition for firing a salvo at Bhumjaithai.
He said that a House dissolution may be unavoidable if the disagreement over the size of the majority required for a charter referendum becomes protracted and descends into a full-blown conflict, leading to Bhumjaithai pulling out of the coalition.
The remark was promptly dismissed by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, a towering figure in Pheu Thai. Mr Phumtham insisted Dr Cherdchai’s remark was strictly a matter of opinion and gave his assurance the coalition unity was as strong as ever.
“One has to be mature and calm about it. If we get carried away with House dissolution talk, wouldn’t we need to dissolve the House several times a day?’ Mr Phumtham said, adding the premier does not care to resort to dissolution as nothing warrants it.
Weighing in, PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said disbanding the House was the prime minister’s privilege.
The PP was at the ready with “every passing minute” for an election. The party reiterates there will be no letting up in its pushing for sweeping charter amendments to democratise the country’s politics, Mr Natthaphong said.
However, some analysts doubt whether PP will be able to pull off a landslide if an election is held soon.
They reckon the party might struggle to expand its support base should Pheu Thai succeed in its populist handout projects and restore red-shirt support in the provinces.
Falling on deaf ears
The relationship between the Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partners is under close scrutiny following sharp criticism by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra during a ruling party seminar last week.
Thaksin accused some coalition parties of not being team players, citing the absence of their ministers from the Dec 11 cabinet meeting, where two executive decrees were on the agenda.
“If you don’t want to be part of this [coalition government], then leave. But if you’re in, you must be upfront and committed because these policies are part of the government’s agenda.
“You raised your hands in support during the delivery of the government policy statement but lowered your hands after the allocation of ministerial seats. This isn’t how things work,” Thaksin said at the seminar in Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri Khan, on Dec 13.
According to Thaksin, he despised “sneaky” behaviour and warned that those skipping future cabinet meetings would be better off leaving the Pheu Thai-led government.
Among the cabinet ministers who took a leave of absence from the Dec 11 meeting were Energy Minister and United Thai Nation (UTN) Party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Deputy Agriculture Minister Akkhara Prompow from a breakaway faction formerly with the Palang Pracharath Party and Interior Minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul.
However, Mr Anutin cut short a doctor’s appointment to attend the meeting after receiving a call from PM’s secretary-general Prommin Lertsuriyadej.
Natural Resources and Environment Minister Chalermchai Sri-on and Deputy Public Health Minister Dech-it Khaothong, both from the Democrat Party, skipped the meeting reportedly without submitting a leave of absence.
Several political observers viewed Thaksin’s criticism as provocative and uncalled for. However, given the coalition parties’ responses, they apparently consider such criticism too insignificant to warrant attention.
Mr Anutin was quoted as saying that his party was receptive to Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is the government leader, and that he was not overly concerned about what her father said.
Akanat Promphan, secretary-general of the UTN and the industry minister who attended the meeting and supported the decrees, said he was not bothered by Thaksin’s remarks and believed minor issues should be overlooked.
According to observers, it is not the only time Thaksin, accused of wielding considerable influence over the ruling party, has made such comments against coalition partners.
Last week he criticised the Bhumjaithai Party for acting hastily in denouncing a bill to amend the Defence Ministry Administration Act to prevent future coups.
Thaksin took a swipe at Bhumjaithai, calling its move an attempt to gain favour and used the phrase “trying to look good but doing it too soon”.
He suggested that the coalition party should have consulted Pheu Thai before denouncing the proposed amendment, which was sponsored by a Pheu Thai MP, not the party itself.
Unperturbed, Mr Anutin clarified the party had acted on principle in opposing the bill and that his remarks reflected Bhumjaithai’s stance, not that of the entire coalition.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, told the Bangkok Post he believed Thaksin’s frustration could be directed at the Democrat Party or specifically at Mr Dech-it, who was once a member of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party led by Thaksin.
However, Thaksin’s “outburst” is pointless and shows that the former premier is unaware that the political landscape has changed vastly since he was prime minister seat, he said.
“Thaksin must still be living in the past, as he was 20 years ago when he was in power and wanted to remind everyone to respect the power of his own daughter,” said the analyst.
According to Mr Thanaporn, Mr Anutin has gained prominence as a political figure in his own right and does not answer to Thaksin.
The Bhumjaithai leader, who as interior minister is deemed to hold one of the most powerful ministerial portfolios, stands ready to face Pheu Thai in the next general election with the full backing of veteran politician and power broker Newin Chidchob — Bhumjaithai’s founder.
He also noted that the Pheu Thai-led government is driven by political manoeuvring with coalition partners primarily focused on advancing their own agendas while preparing themselves for the next polls.
“Let’s face it...when the election comes, they’ll all turn into rivals.
“Pheu Thai will be up against the main opposition, the People’s Party, and definitely also the Bhumjaithai Party. No one is taking the cues from the ruling party’s big boss,” he said, apparently referring to Thaksin.