A case where former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is accused of exerting undue influence over the ruling Pheu Thai Party is expected to be one of the major highlights in Thai politics this New Year.
Pheu Thai and its former coalition partners in the Srettha Thavisin administration could end up being disbanded if they are proven to have consented to Thaksin's alleged interference and manipulation, in violation of Section 29 of the organic law on parties.
The primary allegation of undue influence relates to Pheu Thai and present and former coalition party members meeting Thaksin at his Chan Song La residence in Bangkok on the day Mr Srettha was dismissed as prime minister by the Constitutional Court on Aug 14.
Thaksin is widely seen as the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, which is now led by his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
During that meeting, coalition members and Thaksin discussed possible replacements for Mr Srettha. Thaksin also allegedly intervened in the selection of a prime ministerial candidate after Mr Srettha was removed from office.
Thaksin recommended Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former justice minister and Pheu Thai's other prime ministerial candidate, be put forward for prime minister, but Pheu Thai MPs finally nominated Ms Paetongtarn instead, reports say.
The Election Commission (EC) is looking into petitions lodged separately by Thai Pakdee Party chairman Warong Dechgitvigrom; Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a member of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP); Noppharut Worachitwutthikun, a former key leader of the political group Phirap Khao 2006; and an anonymous individual.
Among the other pieces of evidence submitted to back the allegations are interviews Thaksin has given about Pheu Thai's policies and those of the coalition, some of which were mentioned by Thaksin at a high-profile forum on Aug 22 before being actually adopted by the coalition.
Main target
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, told the Bangkok Post he believed Pheu Thai would be the main target for dissolution while other coalition partners are expected to be spared.
"Disbanding the coalition parties altogether at the same time will lead to a political crisis. If they are fortunate, coalition parties will be treated as witnesses. The primary targets of the petitioners are Thaksin and Pheu Thai," Mr Wanwichit said.
Mr Wanwichit also said Pheu Thai MPs rejected the nomination of Mr Chaikasem in favour of Ms Paetongtarn as prime minister only to avoid allegations the party was manipulated by Thaksin.
"Everyone knows Thaksin has the final say in Pheu Thai. The nomination of Mr Chaikasem was a token gesture. As if on cue, Pheu Thai MPs later rejected Mr Chaikasem and opted for Ms Paetongtarn instead," Mr Wanwichit said.
He said a no-confidence debate against the Pheu Thai government is expected after the New Year, and information from the debate will
also provide plenty of ammunition for Pheu Thai's opponents to lodge further complaints against the party.
Wanwichit: Pheu Thai to face hurdles
Jade Donavanik, a scholar and president of the College of Asian Scholars' Faculty of Law, told the Bangkok Post that all coalition parties must have known in advance who would replace Mr Srettha after he was removed from office.
"The nomination of Mr Chaikasem was meant to test the water. Eventually, Ms Paetongtarn was nominated. This means the replacement for Mr Srettha was already predetermined by Thaksin," Mr Jade said.
He also said it remains to be seen whether the EC will take action specifically against Pheu Thai or also target the coalition parties that attended the meeting at the Ban Chan Song La residence.
Uniting against Pheu Thai?
Mr Jade echoed the view that if the EC spares the coalition parties, they could be enlisted to testify against Pheu Thai.
Some parties may also take this opportunity to teach Thaksin a lesson after he criticised them during a Pheu Thai seminar in Prachuap Khiri Khan on Dec 13.
At the seminar, Thaksin took shots at some coalition parties for their ministers' no-show at a cabinet meeting to deliberate two executive decrees. "The next time they skip [a cabinet meeting], they should also produce a resignation letter," he said.
Mr Jade also said if Pheu Thai is finally disbanded and its executives banned from politics, the party will have no prime ministerial candidates left. Mr Chaikasem is also a Pheu Thai executive.
Then, Bhumjaithai, the third-largest party in parliament, would have the chance to nominate its party leader, Anutin Charvirakul, for prime minister, Mr Jade said.
"It all depends on whether coalition parties will unite against Pheu Thai. It will be easier for the EC to find evidence against Pheu Thai than against all coalition parties," Mr Jade said.
Jade: Events were predetermined
No big deal
However, Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said he did not think the case where Thaksin is accused of exerting influence over Pheu Thai is such a big deal.
He said Thaksin and Pheu Thai had previously survived a more serious case against them.
He referred to the Constitutional Court's dismissal on Nov 24 of a petition claiming that Thaksin and Pheu Thai Party tried to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
The petition was filed by lawyer Teerayut Suwankesorn, who successfully sought the disbandment of the Move Forward Party (MFP).
"I believe no other case is more serious than this case. Claims that Thaksin exerted influence over Pheu Thai pale when compared to the alleged attempt to overthrow the monarchy," Mr Thanaporn said.
Among the many allegations contained in the petition is that Thaksin used the Ministry of Justice under the Pheu Thai-led government to secure an extended stay for himself at the Police General Hospital when he should have been in jail following his conviction for abuse of power last year.
The petition said Thaksin ordered Pheu Thai to join forces with the People's Party (PP), the incarnation of the dissolved MFP, to push for constitutional amendments.
Mr Teerayut also said in the petition the policy statement delivered by Ms Paetongtarn in parliament on Sept 12 echoed the much-hyped "vision" that Thaksin outlined at the local forum on Aug 22.
Given all the accusations, the lawyer said Thaksin and Pheu Thai are undermining the royal institution and the country's multi-party system. As such, he asked the court to stop Thaksin from using Pheu Thai to interfere with the country's public administration and stop exploiting the party to secure his grip on the country.
Mr Thanaporn said he believed Bhumjaithai is still no match for the PP in the next election, while Pheu Thai, with the support of Thaksin, has what it takes to compete against the PP in the next poll.
However, Mr Thanaporn said if Pheu Thai wants to stay in power, it must stay away from conflicts of interest and controversial issues such as the 2001 memorandum of understanding (MoU) regarding maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand.
Critics of the MoU are stepping up their calls for the government to revoke the document as the public is sceptical about the government's planned negotiations with Cambodia over the sharing of natural resources in the Gulf of Thailand under the MoU.
Thanaporn: Earlier case more serious
