The government's own inner workings could turn out to be more disruptive to its unity than external forces or even the opposition, according to a political analyst.
Particularly, how astutely the ruling Pheu Thai Party manages its relationship with its two biggest conservative coalition partners -- the Bhumjaithai and United Thai Nation (UTN) parties -- is central to overall harmony in government.
Despite the opposition's threat to soon file a no-confidence motion -- its most potent tool -- against the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, several observers reckon it would be unlikely to sink the government, regardless of the impact it might generate.
A plausible explanation boils down to the "super deal" Pheu Thai and conservative parties reportedly clinched during the formation of the first Pheu Thai-led administration in 2023, headed by Srettha Thavisin.
The deal, thought to have been brokered by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra -- who wields considerable influence over Pheu Thai -- was allegedly struck some time before Pheu Thai ditched the then Move Forward Party (MFP) and opted instead to form a government with the conservative camp.
Pheu Thai subsequently became known as a "neo-conservative" party tasked with leading the right-wing bloc in fending off the rapidly expanding MFP, now dissolved and reborn as the People's Party.
The source said that even though the Pheu Thai-led government, now headed by Ms Paetongtarn, appears to have embraced conservatism, the "marriage of convenience" with the right-wing parties is anything but congenial.
Pheu Thai may be a Bhumjaithai and UTN ally, however, there have been times when the ruling party has found the two parties a thorn in its side.
The source said there is a constant, covert competition between the three parties.
After all, political parties naturally need to plan for future elections and faring well in polls means inevitably tapping into the support base of allies.
Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have enjoyed a bit of a love-hate relationship. In elections, the two parties are in stiff competition in many places, mostly in the constituency-rich Northeast where Pheu Thai previously held sway in the upper region and Bhumjaithai in the lower part. But they suffered a huge setback in the 2023 general election with the MFP having made substantial inroads in their territories.
Pheu Thai, assisted by Thaksin, has been trying to recapture lost ground through its bid to resurrect red-shirt support. In the process, the party will also look to expand into constituencies controlled by Bhumjaithai.
A visible sign of a rift between Pheu Thai and its conservative partners came when Thaksin accused some coalition parties of not being team players, citing the absence of their ministers from a cabinet meeting on Dec 11 last year, when two executive decrees were on the agenda.
Thaksin said during a seminar in Hua Hin on Dec 13 that the parties should leave the government if they were half-hearted about staying on.
Among the cabinet ministers missing from the Dec 11 meeting were Energy Minister and UTN Party leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga and Deputy Agriculture Minister Akkhara Prompow from a breakaway faction formerly with the Palang Pracharath Party.
Interior Minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul had to cut short a doctor's appointment to attend the meeting after receiving a call from PM's secretary-general Prommin Lertsuriyadej.
Thaksin's reaction, according to the source, could well be construed as Pheu Thai's stand toward its coalition partners.
They have more or less ignored Thaksin's remark.
The former prime minister recently fired a fresh broadside, this time directly at Bhumjaithai. He chided Mr Anutin for putting on a "handsome" facade when the Bhumjaithai leader came out to oppose a bill proposed by Pheu Thai to stave off pretexts for military coups.
Mr Anutin suggested the bill would be pointless since politicians create conditions for military intervention. He said in jest that he projected being "handsome" rather too late.
The source said Bhumjaithai, which is closely aligned with many Senate members, has demonstrated it is no Pheu Thai lackey and can play hardball if it needs to.
In the meantime, the UTN too has rubbed Pheu Thai up the wrong way with its bid to slash electricity bills to 3.70 baht per unit, which may have upstaged the ruling party.
Observers agreed Pheu Thai was not about to let UTN take credit for electricity bill cuts. Thaksin, addressing a provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chairman election rally recently, vowed that the government will implement the electricity price reduction before the year is out.
This enraged UTN supporters who accused Pheu Thai of stealing the UTN policy and attempting to sideline the party, prompting speculation Mr Pirapan may be axed as a deputy prime minister and energy minister in a cabinet reshuffle.
However, Thaksin poured cold water on the speculation and insisted Mr Pirapan was staying put. Thaksin said he had held talks with Mr Pirapan about cutting electricity bills and that they spoke the same language.
Anutin: A 'handsome' fellow
All eyes are on local polls
Typically a low-key event, the elections for Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) presidents and members in 47 provinces have drawn unprecedented attention thanks to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's involvement in the election campaign.
Widely regarded as the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, Thaksin has acted as a campaign assistant to Pheu Thai candidates. His eager participation has placed the spotlight on these local elections.
Today's PAO contests are seen largely as a three-horse race between Pheu Thai, the main opposition People's Party (PP), and the Bhumjaithai Party, although Bhumjaithai insists it has not officially fielded candidates.
Political watchers speculate candidates with ties to Bhumjaithai will secure victories in several provinces and believe this is a key reason Thaksin hit the campaign trail to turn what were otherwise routine elections into closely watched polls.
Pheu Thai has fielded candidates in 14 provinces, with Thaksin focusing his efforts on those where Pheu Thai candidates are running neck-and-neck with Bhumjaithai-affiliated candidates.
The northeastern provinces of Si Sa Ket and Nakhon Phanom have emerged as the most closely watched races because candidates supported by both parties are going head-to-head.
During a recent campaign event in Si Sa Ket, the former prime minister took aim at the Education Ministry, which is under the supervision of Bhumjaithai's Pol Gen Permpoon Chidchob.
His criticism sparked a response from Siripong Angkasakulkiat, a close aide to Pol Gen Permpoon, who stepped in to clarify the minister's actions and performance.
Mr Siripong dismissed Thaksin's remarks as an election strategy to woo voters as political observers see Thaksin's criticism as a reflection of just how high the stakes are for Pheu Thai in these elections.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, told the Bangkok Post that Pheu Thai appears to be under pressure in these local contests.
While the ruling party commands a wide support base, it does not have a clear advantage to guarantee a win, particularly when it comes to financial support, often referred to as "ammunition" for its candidates.
Bhumjaithai is known to be generous with the candidates it backs, so Pheu Thai will have a tough time winning in Si Sa Ket, Bung Kan and Chiang Rai, according to Mr Stithorn.
Moreover, the "blue candidates", a reference to those affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party, are also expected to win in several highly competitive southern provinces also contested by the Democrats and the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
If Bhumjaithai manages to establish a foothold in local politics in Phuket, Krabi and Phangnga, these wins will not only bolster the party's chances in the national election but also help it gain ground, paving the way for its gradual political domination of the southern region. Despite intense competition in local elections, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai will continue to maintain their partnership as coalition allies, he added.
Meanwhile, Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said the main opposition party should not be counted out even though it did not win in the earlier PAO elections in 29 provinces.
In today's race, the PP has fielded candidates in 17 provinces where the party is deemed most prepared, and it is considered a serious contender in Chiang Mai, according to Mr Phichai.
The poll's outcome will depend on whether many middle-class voters who back the PP cast their ballots. Chiang Mai is where Pheu Thai and the PP are locked in a close race due to an equal number of supporters, he said.
In addition to Chiang Mai, the PP may be able to make inroads in Samut Prakan, Samut Songkhram, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat, and even in the southern province of Surat Thani, said the analyst.
The PP is reportedly witnessing growing support in these provinces through a policy platform and canvassing activities on the ground, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party.
However, the analyst noted that Pheu Thai retains a strategic advantage, not only through its ability to rally support but also thanks to its financial backing, he added.
Several PAO presidents resigned before their terms ended on Dec 19, triggering the need for elections within 60 days. Elections for those who completed their terms take place today.
